DAY 244 OF THE WAR: Eight Disastrous Months of War, Two Soldiers Killed, Government Warned that the West Bank May Explode, Ceasefire Talks Stall

Tel Aviv Diary June 6, 2024

Tomorrow marks eight months since the start of the war. It is very hard to believe it has been eight months and Hamas still has our hostages held captive— and worse, Hamas is clearly still in control of Gaza. This has been, without compare, the most disastrous eight months in Israel’s history. It started with the tragic events of October 7th, and the situation has not improved since then.

The government established two main objectives for the war: removal of Hamas from power and retrieval of all the hostages. Yet, after eight months, we have accomplished neither objective. What we have accomplished is the loss of support from much of the world. I won't repeat what I have written before about the nature of a prolonged war—suffice to say this war has been a disaster for Israel on every front. Everyone in the government needs to be held accountable, not just for the catastrophic failures of October 7th, but of everything that has happened since.

Regrettably, today's events starkly highlight just how much we have not accomplished. Early this morning, a Hamas terror squad crossed the first border fence in Rafah, and exited a tunnel 200 meters from the border, with the plan to enter Israel and carry out an attack. Thankfully, one of the vigilant soldiers watching the border area on her monitor immediately called for troops to intercept the terrorists. A squad of Bedouin trackers arrived first on the scene. The Squad Commander, Warrant Officer Zeed Mazarib (34), a tracker in the Gaza Division’s Southern Brigade from the northern Bedouin-majority city of Zarzir, was tragically killed in the initial confrontation with the terrorists

. The soldiers then called for support. Reinforcements, including a drone and a tank were deployed, resulting in three terrorists being killed and one  believed to have fled back to Rafah. This incident, occurring eight months into the war, has deeply unnerved many Israelis, underscoring the ongoing threat from Hamas.

DEADLY DRONE ATTACK IN HURFEISH

This morning, we had confirmation of what most of us already suspected: those wounded yesterday in the northern city of Hurfeish were soldiers. Distressingly, the soldier who suffered mortal wounds has died. He was the battalion’s Rabbi, Staff Sgt. (res.) Rafael Kauders (39), from Tzur Hadassah

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The ability of Hezbollah to successfully direct two drones three miles into Israel undetected and, of course — notably, without being intercepted — is alarming. However, the absence of any warning for the soldiers to seek shelter significantly exacerbated the devastating outcome of the attack.

GAZA

Operations in Gaza continue. One of the battalions operating in Rafah has been rotated out of Gaza. In Israel, there has been some criticism of the pace of the Rafah operation. IDF Spokesman Daniel Hagari responded directly to this criticism:

Dealing with Hamas takes time; anyone who says otherwise is presenting an illusion to the public. Rafah is one of the most complex areas in the world to deal with. The IDF evacuated one million civilians — this is an unprecedented event. Hamas’s lifeline has been addressed, and we are now destroying the underground infrastructure. We are dealing with the Hamas brigades in Rafah with precision, and it is good that this is happening while we maintain security relations with Egypt and preserve international legitimacy.

During the same press conference, Hagari discussed the UNRWA school that was hit today, in which the world has been reporting resulted in 30 casualties. Hagari stated that the attack targeted two very specific rooms, in which it was confirmed that over 30 terrorists were present. To date, the Army has verified the names of nine terrorists killed, and maintains that the majority of the casualties were indeed members of Hamas. Of course, despite this verified intelligence, headlines throughout the world predominantly depict the incident as an attack on a school that was attacked, baselessly implying that the victims were primarily school children.

Relating to ongoing operation in Gaza the Army released the following information today:

Division 98 forces continue their offensive in eastern Al Bureij and eastern Deir al-Balah. The soldiers located underground shafts in the area alongside additional weapons. Simultaneously, Hamas terrorists, including members of the organization’s rocket array, were attacked by tank fire and from the air.

Yesterday (Wednesday), a terrorist cell launched several mortars towards Kibbutz Kissufim, which fell in open areas without causing casualties. In cooperation with Division 98 and the Gaza Division, Air Force fighter jets attacked the launcher in the Al-Faruq neighborhood in central Gaza and simultaneously eliminated the cell that carried out the launches.

Division 162 forces continue focused operations based on intelligence information in the Rafah area. The forces located several tunnel shafts in the operational areas and continue to work on destroying them. During a raid on a military structure in the area, Egoz Unit fighters found many weapons, including firearms, grenades, explosives, vests, and other military equipment.

As part of Division 99’s activities in central Gaza, Air Force fighter jets eliminated a terrorist cell that fired mortars at our forces in the area. There were no casualties among our forces in the incident. In another strike, the forces destroyed a mortar launch position located near the forces.

Throughout the last 24 hours, Air Force fighter jets and aircraft attacked dozens of terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip, including weapons depots, military buildings, tunnel shafts, and other terrorist infrastructure. In one of the strikes, led by the Gaza Division and the Air Force, an aircraft attacked a military position from which terrorists had previously fired into Israeli territory.

A VERY WORTHWHILE READ

The following is an excellent piece discussing the quantity of food making it into Gaza: Plenty of Food Aid is Getting to Gaza

SHOULD ISRAEL CLEAR AND HOLD GAZA

One of our readers shared a link to this article advocating for Israel to occupy Gaza and support its civilian population: https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/should-israel-clear-and-hold-gaza/

I will not delve into the political, moral, and other dimensions of occupying Gaza once again. Its feasibility is as questionable as the idea of us establishing a security zone inside South Lebanon. Our Army simply is not large enough to undertake that task. Moreover, as it is, the same reservists are now being called up to serve for the third time this year. While those who work for large companies might manage, consider the insurmountable burden on the self-employed. Sure, they will receive financial compensation eventually, but what happens to their businesses during their lengthy absences? I haven’t even touched upon the stress such prolonged and repeated stints of reserve duty have on each individual family, or the economy. What about the impact on high-tech companies whose most important employees have been unavailable for the last several months?  In terms of manpower, we are a country that is stressed almost beyond the breaking point. We simply do not have the troops to sustain a long, and undoubtedly bloody, occupation of Gaza. The same goes for South Lebanon.

WEST BANK

We are facing significant challenges in the West Bank, particularly in large cities, such as Jenin — where we have had to repeatedly enter, exit, and then re-enter over the past few years. Today, while entering the refugee camp there, our troops encountered such intense fire that they had to call for air support. We did have a success earlier in the week, when we surprised two Palestinians just as they were preparing to fire from the area of Tulkarem into Israel. Thankfully, the pair was killed before they could launch their attack.

Meanwhile, the defense establishment sent a document to the political echelon about the deteriorating economic situation in the Palestinian Authority. There is a fear that these conditions could trigger a third intifada in Judea and Samaria, which could turn this region from a secondary arena to a primary theatre of conflict.

In the document, security bodies warn that many Palestinians in Judea and Samaria are in a difficult economic reality due to a lack of income sources. For the past two months, Finance Minister Smotrich has refused to sign the clearance funds for the Authority, Palestinian workers have not entered Israeli territory since the beginning of the war. According to the IDF and Shin Bet, this situation could lead many Palestinians to terrorism, as entities like Iran are pouring enormous amounts of money into the area, thus recruiting terrorists and encouraging terrorism. A senior security official this morning told Army radio station Galei Tzahal: “A person who needs to live and is starving for bread, if the Iranians offer him 1,000 shekels for an attack – does not think twice.”

The advisory warning document from the defense establishment also includes several main recommendations aimed at addressing the challenges in the Palestinian economy. These recommendations focus on directly aiding the Palestinian public, bypassing the Authority. This approach stems from the understanding that enhancing the Authority is not feasible due to its actions against Israel on the international stage.

Key recommendations:

1. Opening the crossings in Judea and Samaria on weekends to allow Israeli Arabs to shop in Palestinian cities. Every weekend, thousands of cars of Israeli Arabs can enter, injecting millions into the Palestinian economy.

2. Experimenting with different models for the entry of workers into Israel. The defense establishment recommends a model where, as an initial step, several thousand workers will be allowed entry in a controlled manner, with transportation from Judea and Samaria directly to construction sites in Israel and back, including security checks. If the model succeeds, it will be expanded.

I do not expect the current Israeli government to act on the defense establishment’s warning.

GANTZ AND CEASEFIRE NEGOTIATIONS

On Saturday night, the deadline set by former Defense Minister Gantz for leaving the government will expire. Reports indicate that the US administration has tried to persuade Gantz to postpone his departure. Following President Biden’s speech last week, I thought it was likely that Gantz would wait. However, as of now, it appears that Hamas will reject the Israeli/American proposal. Hamas has declined the current offer, but has left the door open for further negotiation — thus keeping the American administration hopeful, about continuing talks and possibly exerting just a little more pressure on Israel. I believe Sinwar has no incentive to end this war, even mostly on his terms. He sees us slipping deeper into the mud, becoming more isolated, and starting to fight among ourselves. So, why would he rush?

BUSINESS

The Electric Company

The Electric Company continues to invest in start-up companies developing disruptive technologies in the energy market. The company invested $1.1 million in QDM (Quantum Designed Materials), which is developing room-temperature superconductors. At the same time, a cooperation agreement was signed under which QDM will conduct a pilot based on the technology it developed to assess its feasibility and suitability for the Electric Company's needs.

Superconductors are materials that can increase electrical conductivity capacity up to 50 times that of a regular conductor. This reduces energy loss in transmission — a problem that power transmission systems increasingly face as the share of renewable energy in electricity production rises and in light of the fact that renewable energy is generated in the periphery and consumed in the center.

Eureka

Today (Thursday), the American company Tenable announced the acquisition of the Israeli cybersecurity startup Eureka Security, which developed data and cloud information protection technology (DSPM). The amount of the deal was not disclosed, but it is estimated to be in the tens of millions of dollars. The deal is expected to close in the coming month.

Eureka was founded in 2022 by Liat Hayun (CEO), former Vice President of Product Management at Palo Alto Networks, and Asaf Weiss (CTO), former Senior Development Manager at Microsoft and Palo Alto Networks. Eureka employs about 30 workers and previously raised an initial round of $8 million led by YL Ventures and participated in by investors from the global and local cybersecurity industry, including Asaf Rappaport (CEO of Wiz) and Shai Morag (founder of Armis, which was also acquired by Tenable). According to IVC and Pitchbook databases, last year Eureka completed another small funding round.

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A PIECE OF HISTORY

First Disengagement with Egypt- The Birth of Shuttle Diplomacy

US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger was not satisfied with the ceasefire agreements and exchange of prisoners he had negotiated between Israel and Egypt. Rather, Kissinger had wanted to parlay the progress into a larger peace process. The first challenge was negotiating a further disengagement of forces between Israel and Egypt along the Suez Canal. In the meantime, Israeli and Egyptian generals were meeting daily at Kilometer 101 on the Suez-Cairo Highway to maintain the ceasefire. Kissinger moved the talks forward by making a new trip to the Middle East. He flew to the region on December 8, 1973, with the goal of convincing Israel, Egypt, Jordan, and Syria to attend a peace conference in Geneva. Kissinger was successful with all but the Syrians, who would not agree to attend, unless Israel promised to withdraw from the Golan Heights first—which was a nonstarter.

On December 22, 1973, the Foreign Ministers of all the above mentioned nations — with the exception of Syria, but with the addition of the Soviet Union — attended a meeting at Geneva’s Palais des Nations, under the nominal chairmanship of UN Secretary-General Kurt Waldheim. While there were no breakthroughs at this meeting, it was the first time since the Rhodes Conference, after the War of Independence, that Israeli and Arab negotiators met face-to-face in the same room.

At this juncture, the Israelis and Kissinger concluded that the best way forward would be through indirect negotiations between Israel and Egypt facilitated by Kissinger. This decision marked the beginning of what came to be known as Shuttle Diplomacy, as Kissinger began traveling between Israel and Egypt to broker an agreement. Kissinger’s success can partially be attributed to the two leaders who wanted peace. Sadat had sent Golda Meir a private letter which stated:

You must take my word seriously. When I made my initiative in 1971, I meant it.  When I threatened war, I meant it. When I talk peace now, I mean it.  We never had contact before. We now have the services of Dr Kissinger. Let us use him and talk to each other through him.

Kissinger was able to get both sides to agree to the following — Israel would withdraw from the West Bank of the Suez Canal and would move 5-7 kilometers inland. Egypt, however, would only be allowed to maintain 7,000 troops and 30 tanks on the East side of the Canal.

When Kissinger had brokered an agreement in principle between both sides, Golda Meir said the following:

Mr. Secretary, I think that not only those of us who are here take cognizance of this day as a great date. I am hopeful that it is the beginning, and in its wake will come the day when there will be peace in the Middle East, peace for Israel and its neighbors. I hope that this is the beginning of a process that will lead to permanent peace between Egypt and Israel.

I don't think it will make news if I would say that you, Mr. Secretary, had something to do with it. We don't like to use words which may sound like only words. But I sincerely and honestly believe that you have made history this week. I know you didn't begin it this week but there's no doubt in my mind. I want to tell you, on behalf of the people of Israel, how much we appreciate it.

I want to tell the President of the United States that his policy of understanding the problems in the Middle East, including the problems of Israel and its neighbors, has certainly led to this day. Israel and its people remember our appreciation of what he has done, of his attitude and his efforts.

There will be many, many mothers and young wives and children in Israel in the next few days, when they will see their dear ones, who for many months have been on the front watching over the security and safety of Israel and they will be very happy. We hope to see the day, and I honestly and sincerely believe, the day when armies will become something of the past.

And I want to express my thanks for your patience. Wisdom is something either given to one or not; you're either born with it or not, and for that you deserve no special credit. But for your patience, your work, your patience with  both sides. We were easy [laughter] but maybe you had problems with the other side

During Kissinger’s final visit in this series of talks, Golda Meir entrusted him with a private letter for Sadat, which read:

Yigal Allon, Henry Kissinger and Golda Meir

I am deeply conscious of the significance of a message received by the Prime Minister of Israel from the President of Egypt. It is indeed a source of great satisfaction to me and I sincerely hope that these contacts between us through Dr. Kissinger will continue, and prove to be an important turning point in our relations.

I, for my part, will do my best to establish trust and understanding between us. Both our peoples need and deserve peace. It is my strongest conviction that peace is the goal toward which we must direct all our energies.

Let me reiterate what you said in your message: "When I talk of permanent peace, between us, I mean it." It is indeed extremely fortunate that we have Dr. Kissinger whom we both trust and who is prepared to give of his wisdom and talents in the cause of peace. I know that he will continue to extend this untiring service to the promotion of our common interest.

After reading Golda’s letter, Sadat was told by an aid that a few minutes before, at 12 noon on January 18, 1974, the disengagement agreement was signed by Israeli and Egyptian Generals and Kilometer 101. Sadat turned to Kissinger and said he would remove his military uniform and henceforth only wear it for ceremonial occasions.