DAY 242 OF THE WAR: The Pain Does Not End, Progress Toward Ceasefire? Israelis Look Northward, as New Offensive Starts in Gaza

Tel Aviv Diary, June 4, 2024

It's hard to describe the profound level of pain currently gripping this country. One of our veteran television anchors burst into tears during a conversation with Guy Metzger, son of Yoram Metzger (80), whose death was made public yesterday. Lucy Aharish broke down when, at the end of the interview, the younger Metzger calmly stated that while his father is no longer alive, he and the entire Metzger family emphatically request that no soldiers risk their lives or limbs to bring his father’s body back from Gaza.

Newscasters who have tried to stay neutral have reached the point where they can no longer remain silent. Last night, veteran news anchor Udi Segal delivered a five-minute monologue explaining why Netanyahu should not travel to Washington at this time. Segal vehemently criticized the visit, labeling it “merely a stunt that will further divide our supporters in the US, embarrass us when thousands show up to demonstrate, force Democrats to make difficult choices, and all this is for no purpose.” He compared this with Netanyahu's previous trip to oppose the nuclear agreement, acknowledging that, even if you thought it was a bad idea, at least Netanyahu was trying to accomplish something at that time. Segal asked, “What's the goal now? What does Netanyahu aim to accomplish besides furthering his future electoral prospects?”

There is a concerted effort to exert pressure on Hamas. President Biden spoke to the leader of Qatar yesterday and urged him to apply whatever pressure possible on Hamas. Additionally, the US plans also to introduce a resolution to the UN Security Council calling on Hamas to accept the ceasefire proposal. In the meantime, the only response has been from the Hamas representative in Lebanon, who stated that to accept the proposal, they need concrete guarantees the ceasefire will lead to the end of the war — something Netanyahu is not willing to accept, at least publicly.

Today, the Shas party, led by Arye Deri and the Yahadut HaTorah party, publicly expressed their support for the ceasefire proposal. President Herzog also issued a stronger endorsement in favor of the ceasefire today. In an interview, President Biden said that the Israeli proposal was extremely generous toward Hamas, while at the same time voiced concern that Netanyahu may be extending the war to serve his own narrow political needs. Later this week, CIA Head Bill Burns is expected in the region to give an additional push to discussions on the ceasefire.

GAZA

The IDF has re-entered the El Bureij area in the center of Gaza City, acting based on specific intelligence. This operation is expected to mirror the attack on Jabaliya and take one to two weeks in the area. In the meantime, the IDF continues to conduct reconnaissance around the Philadelphi corridor on the Egyptian border.

The Army Spokesman's office released the following statement regarding fighting today in Gaza:

A remotely piloted aircraft of the Air Force, guided by intelligence from the Intelligence Directorate and the Shin Bet, attacked a compound in the Al Bureij area during the night. This compound, located in the 'Abu Al-Hulu' school of UNRWA, was used by the Hamas terrorist organization, where Hamas operatives were present.

The attack was carefully planned and executed with precision munitions to avoid, as much as possible, harm to non-combatants. The targeted compound was used by Hamas operatives for planning numerous terrorist plots against IDF forces currently operating in the region and against the Israeli civilian rear.

Division 162 forces continue fighting in the Rafah area. In the past 24 hours, the soldiers discovered significant tunnels and numerous weapons during searches. During a raid, the combat team of the Nahal Brigade discovered many weapons, including RPG missiles, magazines, 'Kalashnikov' rifles, and additional explosives.

Division 99 continues to operate in the central part of the Gaza Strip. The combat team of Brigade 2 destroyed terror infrastructures and, during a raid, found weapons and military equipment used by Hamas operatives. Navy fighters attacked various military targets as part of the combat efforts of the forces operating in the area.

In the past 24 hours, aircraft and fighter jets of the Air Force attacked and destroyed approximately 65 terrorist targets throughout the Gaza Strip. Among the targets attacked were military buildings, weapons storage sites, launch sites, observation posts, terrorist squads, and additional military infrastructures."

LEBANON & THE NORTH

Today, there was a slight decrease in the number of rockets and drones from Lebanon, and fewer fires were started. Nevertheless, the scenes from last night have left an indelible mark on Israelis. The overwhelming sight of what appeared to be the entire North engulfed in flames is pushing the government to consider taking action there. On one hand, if there is a ceasefire in the South, then the attacks from Lebanon will no doubt end. On the other hand, what if there is no ceasefire? Last night’s fires consumed over 2,470 acres of brush and forest, as well as over 61 acres of fruit orchards.

Today, the IDF Chief of Staff toured the Northern border area and stated:

We are approaching the point where a decision will need to be made, and the IDF is prepared and very ready for this decision. For eight months, we have been attacking here [in Lebanon], and Hezbollah is paying a very, very high price. They have increased their intensity in recent days, and we are prepared, after a very good training process up to the level of a General Staff exercise, to transition to an offensive in the North. Strong defense, readiness for an attack, we are approaching the decision point.

Tonight, the War cabinet convened to discuss the situation in the North. No doubt, the state of the ceasefire proposal was also discussed. There is a great deal of pressure on the IDF to take action in the North. The only problem is that I am unaware of any clearly stated strategic goal or the means by which it would be achieved.

AIR-RAID ATTACKS BY THE NUMBERS

The Army released the following statistics on the number of projectiles fired. As we can see, May saw the highest number of launches from Lebanon by far— as well as the largest number of missiles and rockets from Gaza during 2024. On the first day of the war, in October 2023, Hamas fired over 3,000 rockets.

In May 2024, 1,000 rockets and missiles were launched from the northern front (Lebanon and Syria), compared to:

— 744 rockets in April

— 746 rockets in March,

— 534 rockets in February

— 334 rockets in January

These stats mark a record high of rocket fire from the North since the beginning of the war, indicating a clear trend of sharp increase.

From the Southern Front:

— 452 rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip in May,

    (a fourfold increase from the previous month)

— 113 rockets in April

— 104 rockets in March

—165 rockets in February

— 357 rockets in January

Annual Report of the Israel Innovation Authority

The Israel Innovation Authority's annual report points out several worrisome challenges in the high-tech sector. First, there has been a drop in government investment in the sector. Fifteen years ago, 0.9% of the state budget was invested in high-tech; in 2023, government investment constituted only 0.1% of the state budget. We see a downward trend over the years, and there is an anomaly because, despite high-tech's crucial role in the economy, government investments have surprisingly decreased over the years.

A more troubling statistic is that the sum raised for venture capital funds in Israel declined by 70% during 2023 compared to the average raised between 2018 and 2022. From a global perspective, the local decline is sharper than in other countries, with the global average decreasing by 30-40%.

The report also found, according to data collected among 30 Israeli venture capital funds and in cooperation with the Israel Association of Advanced Industries (IATI), that "almost 40% of venture capital funds show evidence of a trend in which at least one of their portfolio companies has transferred intellectual property abroad due to local instability." In addition, according to the report, almost a quarter of venture capital funds estimate that over 30% of their portfolio companies have already transferred or will move significant activity abroad in the coming year, not as a result of organic growth.

There are a number of positive data points, among them an increase in the number of employees in the field to 396,000 last year, an increase of 2.6% compared to 2022. In addition, there was an increase in the share of the industry in the national product, with Israeli high-tech constituting 19.7% of the national product, about NIS 340 billion. There has also been an increase in the importance of tech in domestic exports, with 53% of Israeli exports in 2023 coming from high-tech, totaling $73.5 billion.

Unrelated to the report, it was announced today that the average monthly salary in the high-tech sector has grown to NIS 35,870.

BUSINESS

Kiryat Gat, Israel—Microalgae protein company Brevel, Ltd. has opened its first commercial plant. The new facility covers an impressive 27,000 square feet [2,500 square meters] and has the capacity to produce hundreds of tons of micro-algae protein powder to serve the flourishing global alternative protein space. This protein is clean, non-GMO, and planet friendly and makes a breakthrough in delivering a truly market-viable solution.

The new site located in the desert periphery of Israel facilitates the introduction of Brevel’s new plant protein to the commercial food market by bringing production up to industrial levels. From the new facility, Brevel can provide a fresh source of protein extracted from the uniquely grown micro-algae belonging to the chlorella family. The resulting ingredient is highly nutritious possessing the full amino-acid profile and highly cost-effective. It has a neutral flavor and color and leaves a negligible environmental footprint. The company expects the new facility to start rolling its first products by the first quarter of 2025. Fermentation sees the light Brevel cultivates its micro-algae in indoor bioreactors via the fermentation of sugars. Unique to its technology is the simultaneous application of light and fermentation. This enables the generation of nutrient-rich micro-algae in abundant yields, without any form of gene modification. “Combining light and fermentation to produce micro-algae is like putting an electric motor into a Tesla car,” explains Yonatan Golan, Brevel’s co-founder and CEO.

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A PIECE OF HISTORY

Diplomacy

From the beginning of the Yom Kippur War, US Secretary of State Kissinger considered the conflict a potential catalyst to begin a peace process in the Middle East. The initial success of the Arab armies had come as a shock, but as the war progressed, including the sizeable American airlift, and Israel went on the offensive, Kissinger once again began thinking about the day after. However, he had to deal with ending the war before he could address the post-war situation. By October 18th, the Israelis were holding an ever-expanding amount of land on the west side of the canal and were threatening to cut off both the Second and Third Egyptian armies. The Egyptians wanted a ceasefire. Kissinger reached out to the Israeli government and asked if they were willing to agree to a ceasefire that included a reference to UN Resolution 242. In his book Years of Upheaval (published in 1982), Kissinger comments…

"All Israeli leaders I have known have agreed instinctively on proposition: never to accept the first proposal put forth by the United States, whatever its merits. If Israel submits without a struggle, never mind the substance, the United States might come to think of it as a docile client, and God knows what we might then take into our heads to impose."

Israel said no to that proposal. The Soviets who were representing Egyptian interests began pressing the US for a ceasefire along these terms.  The Israelis wanted more time to complete their actions on the West side of the Canal.  The Soviets invited Kissinger to Moscow to negotiate the terms of the ceasefire. Kissinger left for the Soviet Union at 2 AM on October 20th.  The Soviets were happy to host Kissinger when he arrived on Saturday, with Breznev making small talk over dinner.  On Sunday, the 21st, they got down to business and reached an agreement for a ceasefire in place.

President Nixon wrote the following to Golda Meir:

"Madam Prime Minister, we believe that this is a major achievement for you and for us and supportive of the brave fighting of your forces first, it would leave your forces right where they are. Second, there is absolutely no mention whatsoever of the word withdraw in the resolution. Third, for the first time, we have achieved the agreement of the Soviet Union to a resolution that calls for direct negotiations without conditions or qualifications between the parties under appropriate auspices. At the same time, we and the Soviets have agreed privately to make our joint auspices available to you and to the Arabs to facilitate this process. This is agreeable to the parties."

Golda had no choice but to agree, but only if Kissinger was to come to Israel on his way back from Moscow to give Israel direct assurances.

Kissinger describes his arrival in Israel as follows:

"I have often been asked to describe the most moving moment of my government service. It is difficult to compare memorable events in such a variety of cultural and political settings. It surely my arrival in Israel on Monday, October 22, 1973 ranks high on the list.

We reached Lod, now Ben Gurion Airport in  Tel Aviv, at 1 PM—local time. Much was written afterward about how eager Israel was to continue the war and how painful it found the ceasefire. No one would've guessed that from our reception. Soldiers and civilians greeted the approaching peace as the highest blessing. Israel was heroic, but its endurance was reaching the breaking point. Those who had come to welcome us seem to feel viscerally how close to the abyss they had come and two weeks of war had drained them. Small groups of servicemen and civilians were applauding with tears in their eyes. The expression showed awareness that almost tangibly conveyed the limits of human endurance. Israel was exhausted no matter what the military maps showed. It's people were earning for peace as can only those we've never known it."

The Egyptians accepted the ceasefire at 5 PM local time on October 22. However, the ceasefire broke down the next day. A local incident escalated, and before long, the Israelis advanced and cut off the last road supplying the Egyptian Third Army. The Soviets threatened to send in troops to intervene, and for a tense few hours, both the US and USSR  put their nuclear forces on high alert. The crisis was averted, and a permanent ceasefire took effect on October 25th.