DAY 240 OF THE WAR: Plurality of Israelis Support Hostage Plan Presented by Biden, Numerous Attacks from Lebanon, Supreme Court Hears Arguments on Ultra-Orthodox Draft

Tel Aviv Diary, June 2, 2024

The main story today remained the fallout from Biden’s revelation of Israel’s plan for a ceasefire and the release of hostages. Tonight, the war cabinet met to go over the next steps. No attempt was made to claim the proposal Biden shared was not, in fact, an Israeli plan. The right wing has made it clear that if the deal goes forward, they will take down the government. However, it is not clear whether we will ever get to that moment of truth. First, Hamas would have to formally accept the Israeli plan. While the government here does not believe that is a likely outcome, that might just be wishful thinking on Netanyahu’s part.

Nevertheless, if this plan does not go forward, it's not clear where we go from here. The likelihood of seeing the hostages alive becomes more and more remote, and our international isolation will grow. Yet, as we can see from this poll below, a plurality of the Israeli public supports the Israeli plan as presented by President Biden.

The results of another interesting poll shows that the overwhelming majority of Israelis do not want to see Ben Gvir and Smotritch in the war cabinet.

LEBANON

Last night, in response to the heavy attacks on Israel, the IAF targeted Hezbollah positions deep within Lebanon. Today, Hezbollah responded with some of the most extensive attacks of the war. There were 13 separate barrages — and in three cases, drones managed to infiltrate Israeli airspace without being downed. In my opinion, we are using the wrong high-tech equipment to down drones (which can be destroyed without using expensive missiles). Israel needs to take a lesson from Ukraine, which, according to reports, is using old-fashioned anti-aircraft guns and jeep-mounted machine guns to down slow-moving, vulnerable drones.

Today's hostilities included strikes on Akko and Nahariya, which are beyond the confrontation line, i.e., the immediate communities surrounding the border. In one of the incidents in Nahariya, a suicide drone exploded in an industrial area, sparking a small fire. Additionally, the onset of the summer heat exacerbates the situation, with several attacks, especially those on the Golan Heights, triggering extensive brush fires.

GAZA

Most of the fighting today was concentrated in the Rafah area as Israel slowly and carefully expanded its control there. Here’s what the Army Spokesman wrote about today’s operations in Gaza:

Forces of Division 162 continue to engage in combat in the Rafah area, where soldiers have uncovered numerous weapons and neutralized armed militants. In a coordinated operation involving Nahal Brigade forces and the Air Force, a launch site was destroyed just minutes after rockets were fired from it towards Israeli forces. No casualties were reported on the Israeli side.

Forces of Division 99 continue to operate in central Gaza. Over the past 24 hours, soldiers from Brigade 2, in coordination with the Air Force, targeted militants posing a threat to the forces. Additionally, in an operation by the Multi-Dimensional Unit, the forces, together with the Air Force, struck a group of militants stationed in a military building who were threatening maneuvering forces in the area.

During the last 24 hours, Air Force fighter jets have attacked more than 30 terrorist targets, including military infrastructure, weapons depots, and armed militant groups posing a threat to ground forces.

SUPREME COURT HEARS ARGUMENTS REGARDING ULTRA-ORTHODOX DRAFT

One of the major stories today has been the issue of the ultra-Orthodox draft. The Supreme Court, in an extended session involving 9 of the 15 justices, followed up on a temporary order issued on March 28, 2024. This Supreme Court order had temporarily frozen funds for ultra-Orthodox youth not entering the Army and determined that there was no legal basis to exempt them from the draft at this time. In today’s hearing, the justices were tasked with determining whether the law requires them to direct the government to induct age-appropriate ultra-Orthodox men immediately.

It should be noted that there is currently no law exempting young ultra-Orthodox men from conscription; the existing legislation mandates the conscription of all eligible individuals. The Army's need for additional soldiers is clear due to the combination of our losses in the war and the newly recognized necessity for a significantly larger force, which emphasizes the urgency of increasing the pool of soldiers.

From the judges' comments and questions, it appears likely that they will unanimously decide that the ultra-Orthodox must be drafted. Moreover, they will probably also order that all funding be cut off for those who do not comply. The political ramifications of this decision remain unclear. The ultra-Orthodox, especially the Ashkenazi parties, have been allied with Likud since the 1980s. Finding a government more sympathetic to their interests is unlikely. However, their rabbis might decide on principle to withdraw from a government that enforces their conscription. We can also expect large-scale demonstrations by the ultra-Orthodox community.

The Israeli public, which overwhelmingly supports drafting of the ultra-Orthodox, also largely believes that Netanyahu has been acting in his own political interest regarding this matter at the expense of integrating more ultra-Orthodox into the Army.

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DAVID LEVY

David Levy passed away today at the age of 86. Levy, born in Rabat, Morocco, in 1937, immigrated to Israel in 1957 to the town of Bet She’an, where he quickly emerged as a leader within the Israeli labor movement. He later joined the Likud, becoming a notable young leader and the most prominent Sephardi figure in the party.

Throughout his political career, Levy served in various significant roles in the Israeli government. His first major position was as Minister of Immigrant Absorption from 1977 to 1981. From 1979 to 1990, Levy held the post of Minister of Housing and Construction. Levy also served as Deputy Prime Minister from 1981 to 1992, a role that positioned him as a key player in the government, involved in high-level decision-making processes. Concurrently, Levy took on the role of Minister of Foreign Affairs from 1990 to 1992, where he was involved in shaping Israel's foreign policy.

In the mid-1990s (from 1996 to 1998), Levy returned to government as Deputy Prime Minister and again as Minister of Foreign Affairs during the same period. His tenure included efforts to strengthen Israel's diplomatic ties and navigate the complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Levy's service continued into the late 1990s and early 2000s, where he served yet again as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs from 1999 to 2000. His focus during these years was on maintaining Israel's security and international standing.

Finally, in 2002, David Levy served as Minister without Portfolio. Levy was the leading Sephardic politician of his generation. He had hoped to become the leader of the Likud and, thus, the Prime Minister, but that goal alluded him.

David Levy with Shimon Peres 2001

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David Levy's contributions to Israeli society and politics left an indelible mark. He will be remembered as a steadfast advocate for the underprivileged and a dedicated public servant. Levy is survived by his nine children and numerous grandchildren.

TRAVEL

Today, the Maldives, a popular destination for Israeli tourists, announced that it would bar Israeli tourists from visiting its island resorts in the future.

In addition, Terminal One at Ben Gurion Airport reopened today for the first time since the start of the war. Terminal One hosts most low-cost airlines and domestic low-cost carriers. Both Arkia and Israir have been experiencing surging demand due to the relatively few foreign low-cost airlines providing service to Israel. As a result, both airlines are wet-leasing an additional plane (a wet lease is when a plane comes with a crew) to help meet demand.

HAIFA UNIVERSITY SET TO OPEN NEW MEDICAL SCHOOL

This morning (Sunday), the University of Haifa laid the cornerstone fors scheduled to open in its new medical school, which i the academic year 2025/26. The new school, established in collaboration with Carmel Hospital and Clalit Health Services, is expected to enroll 60 students in its first phase, increasing to 150 in later phases. The establishment of this new school was made possible by a 200 million shekel donation from the Amir family foundation, one of the largest donations in the history of Israeli academia.

Currently, Israel is home to six medical faculties, located at Hebrew University, Tel Aviv University, Ben-Gurion University, Bar-Ilan University, Ariel University, and the Technion. The Weizmann Institute and Reichman University also plan to establish medical schools. Once these plans come to fruition, Open University will remain the only Israeli university without a medical faculty. Israel has 3.3 doctors per 1,000 people, which is below the OECD average of 3.5 per 1,000. Due to the low number of medical students able to study in Israel and the increasing restrictions on recognition of foreign medical studies, the situation is expected to worsen in the coming years, a problem which the establishment of the new medical schools is meant to address.

ECONOMY

Unemployment is down to 3.4%, yet the increase in job vacancies has surged, nearly reaching an all-time high—but only for non-academic workers. In contrast, the demand for academic workers is 40% below the peak and has hardly recovered from the low it reached at the start of the war (see Figure 6). The weakness in demand for workers is also evident in the high-tech sector. According to the labor force survey, the number of salaried employees in the sector has not recovered and was about 9% lower in March compared to the same month last year. There is also stagnation in the number of job vacancies in the industry.

Fox Group reported that the British coffee and sandwich chain “Pret a Manger” has canceled the franchise it granted in Israel. In Fox's report to the stock exchange, it is explained that, according to Pret a Manger, the war in Israel constitutes a "force majeure" event that affects "Pret's ability to carry out the necessary preliminary actions to start operations according to the license agreement.” The franchise was supposed to operate under a joint company of Fox (80%) with the Yarzin-Sela catering group (20%), which owns the Magazzino, Cafe Italia, Taqueria restaurants, as well as the Zozobra and Tony Vespa chains.

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A PIECE OF HISTORY

The Battle of the Chinese Farm and the Crossing of the Canal

After the failed Egyptian offensive, the Israeli government gave the IDF approval to launch a major counteroffensive that included crossing the Suez Canal. The plan was to cross the canal at Deversoir, just north of the Great Bitter Lake, and to screen the crossing from attacks from the south. General Ariel Sharon’s forces led the attack, which they launched at 5 o'clock on October 15th. The maneuver began with a feint in the northern section of the line to draw the Egyptian forces to that area. Meanwhile, once the force reached the Bitter Lakes and moved north to the crossing point, they began crossing the canal on rafts, including floats for several tanks and other armored vehicles.

The goal was to expand the area leading to the beachhead to allow the unimpeded transport of bridging equipment and additional forces. However, after the initial Israeli forces had crossed, the Egyptians responded and closed the road behind them, effectively stranding the beachhead. This led to one of the most bitter fights of the war, commonly known as “The Chinese Farm” (in reality, a Japanese farm).

The Battle of the Chinese Farm, which began on the night of October 15th, 1973, lasted two days. The paratroopers tasked with gaining control of the area faced stiff resistance from the entrenched Egyptian 16th Infantry Brigade, who had fortified positions with anti-tank weapons, artillery, and machine guns. The dense agricultural fields and irrigation ditches provided the Egyptians with natural defensive advantages, complicating the Israeli advance.

As the Israelis attempted to push through the farm, the Egyptians launched several counterattacks, leading to intense close-quarters combat. The battle saw significant use of tanks and infantry fighting in confined spaces. The Egyptian forces utilized RPGs and Sagger anti-tank missiles effectively, inflicting considerable losses on Israeli armor.

Recognizing the battle's importance, both Israelis and Egyptians committed additional forces. The IDF brought in elements of the 162nd Armored Division, while the Egyptians reinforced their positions with additional infantry and armored units. The escalation turned the Chinese Farm into one of the war's most brutal and sustained engagements.

By October 17th, Israeli forces finally gained control over the area. This allowed them to deploy the bridging equipment necessary to construct a bridge across the canal and reinforce the small Israeli force that had crossed the canal earlier.

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