ZOOM Briefing: Sunday, June 2, 6 PM Israel, 4 PM UK, 11 AM EDT, 8 AM PDT. Invitations will be sent in the morning
It's amazing how much can change from one day to the next. On Friday and again today, I spent 30 minutes on i24News alongside Lt. Col. (res.) Doron Avital, former commander of the elite combat unit Sayeret Matkal. On Friday, we shared our joint gloominess regarding the state of the war, with neither of us seeing a clear path forward. Today, however, we were both more hopeful.
President Biden's speech, coupled with the fact that Netanyahu has not repudiated it outright, gave us both hope. We believe that the Israeli government’s willingness to take an additional step, combined with Biden's well-balanced, excellently timed address could provide a viable path toward ending the war. Both of us were optimistic on air, as well as when we spoke for a few minutes after the show. Still, many questions remain, including whether Gantz will leave the government if progress toward an agreement is indeed being made. I'll discuss more about the speech in a moment.
Friday began as another terrible day. The night before, it was clear we would hear bad news in the morning, as the military correspondent I follow reported there had been heavy fighting in Gaza that day. I awoke to the Army’s announcement that Sgt. First Class (res.) Adar Gavriel (24), of the Bislamach Brigade’s 6828th Battalion, was killed in Jabaliya. In addition, Sgt. Yehonatan Elias (20), of the Givati Brigade’s Reconnaissance Unit, fell during combat in Rafah
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Early in the morning, I headed to the i24 Studio to discuss the ongoing war and Trump's conviction. While I do not wish to delve into the Trump conviction here, the trial does underscore one key lesson for Israel — i.e., the need for fundamental judicial reform here. Not the type the government wanted, which was merely an attempt to gain more power, but rather a reform to streamline the system. In the US, a former President’s trial can take six weeks, while here we would be lucky if Prime Minister Netanyahu’s trial is completed in six years.
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THE STATE OF HOSTAGE NEGOTIATIONS
On Friday, significant attention was given to a meeting held on Thursday night between National Security Council head, Tzachi Hanegbi and some hostage families. At the meeting, Hanegbi made it clear that “this current government will not make a decision to stop the war for the return of all the hostages.” Hanegbi added, “We have to keep fighting so that there won’t be another October 7 in October 2027.”
Furthermore, Hanegbi noted that if Hamas does not accept the current Israeli proposal for the return of the hostages, Israel has no Plan B. At that time, the details of the new Israeli proposal were not known. Then came Biden’s speech last night from the White House. Biden’s address was strategically timed to be on Shabbat in Israel, so that two extremist ministers would not be able to immediately attack it. The full transcript of the speech is available here.
PRESIDENT BIDEN DETAILS “NETANYAHU’S NEW PROPOSAL”
Biden started off by saying:
Israel has offered a comprehensive new proposal, which provides a roadmap to an enduring ceasefire and the release of all hostages — and that this proposal has been transmitted by Qatar to Hamas.
This initial statement immediately resulted in headlines and push notifications all referring to an Israeli plan.
Biden then went on to describe the major elements of the plan:
The first phase would last for six weeks. Here’s what it would include: a full and complete ceasefire; withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza; release of a number of hostages -- including women, the elderly, the wounded -- in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. There are American hostages who would be released at this stage, and we want them home.
In addition, the remains of some hostages who were killed would be returned to their families, bringing some degree of closure to their terrible grief.
Palestinians -- civilians -- would return to their homes and neighborhoods in all areas of Gaza, including in the north.
The second part:
During the six weeks of Phase One, Israel and Hamas would negotiate the necessary arrangements to get to Phase Two, which is a permanent end to hostilities. Now, I’ll be straight with you. There are a number of details to negotiate to move from phase one to phase two. Israel will want to make sure its interests are protected.
But the proposal says if the negotiations take longer than six weeks for phase one, the ceasefire will still continue as long as negotiations continue. And the United States, Egypt, and Qatar would work to ensure negotiations keep going -- all agreements -- all agreements -- until all the agreements are reached and phase two is able to begin.
This second part is the grey area — and that needs to be stressed. Israel can propose negotiating for a new regime in Gaza during this stage, while Hamas can ignore that possibility. This ambiguity allows both sides to accept the plan, as long as its details remain somewhat vague. As I said earlier today, this approach is very reminiscent of a strategy used by Henry Kissinger to get both sides to agree.
Then phase two: There would be an exchange for the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers; Israeli forces would withdraw from Gaza; and as long as Hamas lives up to its commitments, a temporary ceasefire would become, in the words of the Israeli proposal, “the cessation of hostilities permanently.”
Finally, in Phase Three, a major reconstruction plan for Gaza would commence. And any final remains of hostages who have been killed would be returned to their families.
Biden went on to say:
The people of Israel should know they can make this offer without any further risk to their own security because they’ve devastated Hamas form- -- forces over the past eight months. At this point, Hamas is no longer is capable of carrying out another October 7th, which -- one of the Israelis’ main objective in this war and, quite frankly, a righteous one.
I know there are those in Israel who will not agree with this plan and will call for the war to continue indefinitely. Some -- some are even in the government coalition. And they’ve made it clear: They want to occupy Gaza, they want to keep fighting for years, and the hostages are not a priority to them. Well, I’ve urged the leadership in Israel to stand behind this deal, despite whatever pressure comes.
And to the people of Israel, let me say this. As someone whose had a lifelong commitment to Israel, as the only American President who has ever gone to Israel in a time of war, as someone who just sent the U.S. forces to directly defend Israel when it was attacked by Iran, I ask you to take a step back and think what will happen if this moment is lost.
We can’t lose this moment. Indefinite war in pursuit of an unidentified notion of “total victory” will not bring Israel in -- will not bring down -- bog down -- will only bog down Israel in Gaza, draining the economic, military, and human -- and human resources, and furthering Israel’s isolation in the world.
Let's break this down. By all accounts, Biden detailed the plan that Israel put forward. Moreover, Biden wrapped the proposal into a package that would bring an end to the war. The Israeli cabinet only approved a long-term ceasefire. Agreeing to an end of the war is going to be difficult for Netanyahu to accept, as he keeps talking about fighting until we achieve “absolute victory”. Unfortunately, on day 239, it’s clear there will not be a complete victory.
We are now in the middle of the operation in Rafah, and when that is done, the question remains: what next? It's clear that extending combat another week or month will not make a significant difference. Yes, we could probably fight for 3-4 years and perhaps achieve a decisive victory over Hamas. But this country cannot sustain a 3 or 4-year war on multiple fronts. We are becoming more isolated in the world, which will start having disastrous impacts on our economy. If we keep on fighting, there will be no chance to bring back live hostages, as eventually, only corpses will remain. The proposed deal allows Israel to restart the fighting if it proves impossible to reach a resolution with Hamas.
Netanyahu released two statements over Shabbat, not denying that Biden had outlined Israel’s plan, but emphasizing that Israel will not agree to an end of the war without destroying Hamas.
Tonight, the Forum of the Families of the Hostages has called on all Israelis to pressure the government to accept what they are calling “the Netanyahu Plan”. Former Defense Minister and member of the war cabinet Benny Gantz issued a statement tonight generally supporting the plan promoted by President Biden and calling for an immediate meeting of the war cabinet to discuss approval of the plan.
Also tonight, Israel’s Forum of Businesses released the following statement:
The Forum of Businesses, including over 200 economic leaders, chairpersons, and CEOs of companies employing the majority of private sector workers, support the Biden-Netanyahu plan and the war cabinet and called on the Israeli government to make a brave and necessary decision to bring all the hostages home. Bringing the hostages home is the supreme moral duty of the state leadership at this time.
Two hours after the conclusion of Shabbat, Chairman of Religious Zionist Party and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated:
I just spoke with the Prime Minister and made it clear to him that I will not be part of a government that agrees to the proposed plan and ends the war without destroying Hamas and returning all the hostages.
We will not agree to cease the war before the destruction of Hamas, nor to severely compromising the war's achievements so far through the withdrawal of the IDF and the return of Gazans to the northern part of the Strip, nor to the wholesale release of terrorists who would return, God forbid, to murder Jews.
We demand the continuation of the fighting until Hamas is destroyed and all hostages are returned, the creation of a completely different security reality in Gaza and Lebanon, the return of all residents to their homes in the north and south, and massive investment in the accelerated development of these regions.
Minister of National Security Ben-Gvir issued a similar statement. Netanyahu is going to have to decide the future of the country or his political survival. I fear we already know Netanyahu's answer.
Netanyahu has officially received the invitation to speak before a Joint Session of Congress. I am sorry to say that Netanyahu addressing Congress does not serve the interest of Israel, it only serves his own political interests.
LEBANON
Most of last week was relatively calm on the Lebanese front. That quiet ended on Friday, when there were 12 barrages on Northern Israel, and continued today with 12 additional barrages— which included two attempted attacks by drones on Akko. In addition, Hezbollah launched a very heavy rocket, which landed on an Israeli Army base next to Kiryat Shmonah, causing a great deal of damage.
Hezbollah also downed an Israeli drone today. Israel responded with responded with repeated attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon
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The Army Spokesman described the IDF operations in the North as follows:
In the last 72 hours, the IDF has targeted a series of objectives in Lebanon. In a joint operation by the Northern Command, the Air Force, and the Intelligence Division, military structures used by Hezbollah terrorists, significant organizational assets, and rocket launchers firing into Israeli territory were attacked.
Throughout the day, Air Force jets targeted a surface-to-air missile launcher utilized by Hezbollah’s air defense system in response to the terrorist organization’s attempts to disrupt Israeli aerial operations. In swift and targeted coordination of intelligence, firepower, and air strikes, around ten Hezbollah terrorist cells in southern Lebanon were attacked, resulting in the elimination of approximately four terrorists.
In Gaza Israeli forces have left Jabaliya and have concentrated their efforts in Rafah. Here is what the Army reported about the operations in Gaza during the last 24 hours:
Division 162 forces continue focused combat based on precise intelligence in the Rafah area. Battle teams from the Commando Brigade, BISLAH, Givati, and Nahal have discovered numerous weapons, including underground tunnels, rockets ready for launch, explosives, Kalashnikov rifles, and additional military equipment.
Division 99 continues operations in the central part of the Gaza Strip. The division's forces have destroyed several terrorist infrastructures identified in the area that posed a threat to our forces. After searches conducted by the battle team of Brigade 679, a weapons depot was found containing dozens of rocket components. In another operation, the soldiers, in collaboration with Air Force units, closed in on a terrorist cell that fired RPGs at them and eliminated it.
The day before yesterday, an Air Force aircraft attacked a building belonging to the Alnour Association in the Daraj Tuffah area. This association is recognized as a terrorist organization due to its financial transfers to Hamas. Through its activities, the association transferred millions of dollars used for terrorist activities in the Judea and Samaria region, funding Hamas terrorists. Additionally, the association receives funds from terrorist movements and transfers them to the families of Hamas operatives who have been killed or are held in Israeli prisons.
During the week, fighter jets attacked the Khan Younis area and killed terrorist Salama Baraka. Baraka served as a Hamas operative in the East Khan Younis battalion and simultaneously as the head of the finance department in the Hamas police.
DEFENSE INDUSTRIES
French authorities have banned Israeli defense firms from participating in the Eurosatory 2024 trade show near Paris next month. Organizers, Coges Events, announced that the decision was made by government authorities. The French Defense Ministry cited the current situation in Rafah and President Macron's call for a cessation of IDF operations as the reasons for not hosting Israeli companies at the event.
BUSINESS
Greylock Partners, one of Silicon Valley's oldest venture capital firms, is opening an office in Israel to seek early-stage investments in Israeli startups. It is reported that Greylock has appointed Mor Chen as the manager of its operations in Israel.
Great reporting Marc! The Rafah tunnels from Egypt to Gaza appear to be a modern day version of the Ho Chi Minh Trail in Vietnam from the late 60s. Destroying Hamas also involves destroying all the tunnels and conduits conveying weapons and supplies. Once and for all.
This American also does not think Hamas has any legal standing and should not be recognized as such via peace deals. Unconditional surrender and release of ALL hostages NOW.
Great reporting Marc! The Rafah tunnels from Egypt to Gaza appear to be a modern day version of the Ho Chi Minh Trail in Vietnam from the late 60s. Destroying Hamas also involves destroying all the tunnels and conduits conveying weapons and supplies. Once and for all.
This American also does not think Hamas has any legal standing and should not be recognized as such via peace deals. Unconditional surrender and release of ALL hostages NOW.