DAY 236 OF THE WAR: Iran Enriches More Uranium, Three Soldiers Killed, West Bank Violence, El Al’s Profits Soar—When Will the War End?

Tel Aviv Diary, May 29, 2024

ZOOM Briefing: Sunday, June 2, 6 PM Israel, 4 PM UK, 11 AM EDT, 8 AM PDT.

The latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reportedly shows that Iran continues to enrich uranium at a rapid rate. The reports note the Iranians now possess 313.2 pounds of uranium enriched to 60%, an increase of 45.4 pounds since the previous report. Note that under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran had no uranium enriched to the 60% level. Netanyahu, who encouraged Trump to leave the JCPOA, made a catastrophic mistake by exiting the agreement without a “Plan B.” — But let's leave that aside for the moment.

While we continue to lose soldiers and turn the world against us, trying to kill every last Hamas terrorist (which we are very far from achieving), Iran is busy advancing its nuclear program. Instead of focusing our diplomatic efforts on mobilizing the world against Iran, which has clearly aligned itself with Russia against Ukraine — a country supported by the Western world— we are getting bogged down in Rafah.

Furthermore, there are now reports that the Biden Administration is pressuring the UK and France to refrain from imposing additional sanctions on Iran. While I am unsure whether or not these reports are correct, since they all come from critics of the Biden Administration, they highlight a larger strategic dilemma. We should be using every diplomatic tool to pressure the Biden Administration to impose additional sanctions on Iran. However, we cannot because we need every bit of goodwill we can get to ensure the US vetoes potential sanctions against us in the United Nations.

One of the primary reasons Yitzhak Rabin accepted the Oslo Accords and engaged Yasser Arafat despite his reservations —was that even back then, Rabin saw the Iranian threat as an existential threat to our existence. While it’s clear Hamas poses a serious threat and a formidable obstacle to ever achieving peace, the threat Hamas poses can be primarily neutralized with the deployment of a few thousand additional troops. However, the Iranian threat is much more complex, and we need a coalition of allies to effectively neutralize that threat.

GAZA

Yesterday was a tragic day on the battlefield. Three soldiers—Staff Sgt. Amir Galilove (20), from Shimshit; Staff Sgt. Uri Bar Or (21), from Midreshet Ben-Gurion; and Staff Sgt. Ido Appel (21), from Tzofar—were all killed, and five others were injured when they entered a booby-trapped building in Rafah.

.The IDF is continuously expanding its operations in Rafah, employing remotely controlled APCs to scout areas without endangering soldiers. The Army’s approach seems to be measured and restrained. According to the Wall Street Journal, Israel has managed to navigate its actions in Rafah in a manner that maintains American support.

This evening, the Army announced that Israel now has gained complete control over the Philadelphi Corridor, the border area with Gaza. According to the IDF, they discovered 20 tunnels leading to Egypt, as well as 80 different tunnels entrances.

Today, the head of the National Security Council, Tzachi Hanegbi, asserted that the war would continue for another seven months to achieve its objectives.

Gadi Eizenkot, former IDF Chief of Staff and current War Cabinet member, stated in a speech he delivered today:

I wish we could do an Entebbe [rescue] and bring back the hostages, but they are scattered across dozens of sites. Hamas is not just a terrorist organization but an ideological one. Even if elections were held in Gaza today, Hamas would win—and they might even give Yair Golan a significant challenge. [MS-Golan won the Labor Party election with 95% of the vote.]

Anyone who says we can dismantle a few battalions in Rafah and then return the hostages is spreading false illusions—this is a much more complex situation. The truth is it will take 3 to 5 years for significant stabilization [of Gaza] and then many more years to establish alternative rule. “Complete victory” is a slogan. Netanyahu has failed regarding both security and the economy.

The [hostage] negotiation team is highly skilled, though there is a significant gap between what happens in the room and what is reported in the news. Take, for example, Nitzan Alon's outline, which he presented as part of the defense establishment with everyone's support. Suddenly, someone browsing the internet sees a report claiming there are three traitors who want to end the war—Gantz, Galant, and Eizenkot.

We must agree on an election date that will take place by the end of 2024.

A WORTHWHILE READ

There was an interesting article in the New York Times by Bret Stephens titled: Do We Still Understand How Wars Are Won?

WEST BANK

There were two troubling incidents along the line between Israel and the West Bank today. Palestinians fired guns along the fence into Gan Ner, Yad Hannah, and Bat Hefer, which are located near the border with the West Bank. Israelis who live near the Green Line are worried that their region will turn into an area like the Gaza border.