DAY 23 OF THE GAZA WAR: Ground War Expands,Escalation in the North, Netanyahu Creates Political Storm

Tel Aviv Diary October 29, 2023

Details surrounding the main news of today are shrouded in the fog of war. We know that the army has expanded its operations in northern Gaza and in other parts of Gaza as well. The plan involves a slow and steady progression, with the Air Force clearing the way before any ground movements. Coordination between air and ground forces appear to be exceptionally close. A photograph released by the IDF suggests that one axis of advance is along the beach

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After three days inside Gaza, three IDF soldiers have been wounded, all of whom have been successfully evacuated to a hospital in Ashkelon. The hope in Israel is that a gradual military advance will compel Hamas to negotiate seriously for the release of hostages. However, I remain skeptical and pessimistic. Hamas believed that having hostages would make them untouchable in the eyes of Israel; they misunderstood our resolve, in light of the unspeakable horrors Hamas perpetrated here.

Today, the IDF spokesperson updated the number of hostages held by Hamas to 239. To date, 40 people remain unaccounted for, and 311 families of soldiers have been notified of their loss.

Meanwhile, tensions are escalating in the North. Rocket attacks have been launched towards both the Eastern and Western Galilee. One rocket directly hit a home in Kiryat Shmona, though, fortunately, residents of the town were evacuated last week. The towns of Kiryat Shmona, Shlomi, and the intervening kibbutzim are practically deserted, with residents taking refuge in hotels across the country. Israel retaliated against the source of the rocket fire, for which Hamas in Lebanon has claimed responsibility. Additionally, rockets were fired from Syria into Israel tonight, all of which landed in open fields. The IDF responded with counter-fire

House in Kiryat Shmona hit by rocket

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The critical question is what Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will decide: How far will he go to aid Hamas in their hour of need?  While general sentiment suggests Nasrallah does not want a full-scale war, those making assessments appear less certain today. I maintain my initial prediction that there's a 60/40 chance Hezbollah will not intervene — perhaps it's wishful thinking, but I remain optimistic.

Tel Aviv was relatively calm today. Only one barrage was launched towards the metro area, and Tel Aviv itself was not targeted. Fragments of two rockets caused minor damage, but resulted in no injuries.

NETANYAHU APOLOGIZES

A major controversy erupted in the wee hours of the morning, when Prime Minister Netanyahu criticized the Shabak and the Army via Twitter for allegedly “failing to provide him with a warning.” Netanyahu’s tweet received widespread condemnation, including from new war cabinet members Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot. The backlash was so significant that Netanyahu deleted the tweet and issued an apology—one of the few times Netanyahu has ever done so. However, Netanyahu did not retract his original statement. It's clear Netanyahu harbors the delusion he will have a political career after this war; a notion increasingly criticized even by his traditional supporters. Currently, 80% of the public holds him responsible for the war.

At tonight's security cabinet meeting, one topic on the agenda will be the actions of settlers in the West Bank, some of whom have attacked and killed an unspecified number of Palestinians. Events in the West Bank have received minimal coverage in the Israeli press, which is understandably focused on Gaza. However, the settlers' actions could incite Palestinians and exacerbate the security situation. The last thing Israel needs now is a full-scale uprising in the West Bank. Measures must be taken to reign in the settlers before it's too late.

DAGESTAN ATTEMPTED LYNCHING

In Dagestan, a predominantly Muslim region of Russia, a mob attacked a plane arriving from Israel. Video footage shows hundreds of people trying to board the plane and subsequently searching for Israelis at a hotel. They vacated the hotel only after being convinced that no Jews or Israelis were present. As of my writing, the small number of Jews and Israelis who were on the plane are safe, and the mob has been dispersed from the airport. The Rabbi of Dagestan announced tonight that the 200 Jewish families residing there have no choice but to leave.

CHINA’S STANCE ON THE MIDDLE EAST

The New York Times published a disconcerting article today about China's stance on the Middle East. Particularly troubling was the prevalence of antisemitic material in Chinese media, both online and in official outlets, claiming that Jews control the media in the United States. This phenomenon aligns with a theory suggesting that high school students have become increasingly anti-Israel due to the disproportionate amount of anti-Israel content on TikTok. While one benign explanation attributes this imbalance to better TikTok skills, along with the deployment of more bots on the anti-Israel side, a more problematic hypothesis points to biases in the platform's algorithm.

ZOOM MEETING

For those who missed today’s Zoom meeting, here is a recording of it. I will have another session in two weeks.

ELBIT

In my regular weekly Tel Aviv Diary entries, you may have noticed frequent mention of Elbit Systems, reflecting my longstanding interest in Israel's arms industry; an enthusiasm that dates back to my graduate school years. Being on Elbit's PR list certainly helps. As Elbit works to fulfill its extensive backlog of orders, one wonders where the IDF stands in that queue to receive its newest weapons. Among Elbit's current contracts is an order for its new generation of artillery guns for the Israeli Artillery Corps. However, these weapons will only be delivered by mid-2024 — too late for the current conflict.

Today, Elbit Systems announced it was awarded a $135 million contract to establish an artillery ammunition factory for an international customer. The contract will be performed over a period of two years. This contract will leverage the significant technical and operational knowledge that Elbit Systems has accumulated, as well as decades of ammunition production experience. Elbit Systems builds and operates ammunition factories and production lines in multiple sites. The Company's experience covers the entire product cycle, from design to production as well as maintenance and after sales support.