DAY 226 OF THE WAR: More Fighting in Gaza, Smotritch and Ben-Gvir Speak Out, Can Peace With Palestinians Happen?

Tel Aviv Diary, May 19, 2024

Today has been another day of heavy fighting in Gaza. Early this morning, we learned that two more soldiers had died: Staff Sgt. Nachman Meir Haim Vaknin (20), from Eilat, and Staff Sgt. Noam Bittan (20), from Yad Rambam.

This afternoon, it was announced that Major Gal Shabbat, who was wounded on Thursday, succumbed to his injuries.

Clashes occurred both in Jabaliya and Rafah. Additionally, Hamas succeeded in firing several rockets at the communities surrounding Gaza. Rockets continued to be fired in the North as well.

GANTZ’S ULTIMATUM, THE DAY AFTER

Following Gantz's threat to withdraw from the government yesterday, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich spoke up today, voicing their own demands. Ben-Gvir urged Netanyahu to fire both Gantz and Gallant. Ben-Gvir also explicitly outlined his plan, which was to establish a military government in Gaza and then encourage Gazans to emigrate.

Meanwhile, speaking in the North, Smotrich insisted that the government issue an ultimatum to Hezbollah — Should Hezbollah continue its attacks, Smotrich asserted, Israel should invade and occupy Lebanon and then establish a security zone there, inside Lebanon.

The major issue with these two “experts,” Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, who together have served six months in the IDF, advocating for patently unrealistic military maneuvers, is that Israel does not have sufficient troops to occupy Gaza, let alone southern Lebanon. We once established a security zone in south Lebanon, which we were forced to leave—and that was before our enemy had rockets near Beirut that could hit Tel Aviv. Neither of these MKs understands the international and economic implications of occupying Gaza and southern Lebanon. Why would they? They both live in the West Bank, protected by thousands of IDF soldiers. By and large, many of the people who live with them in their communities work for the government in one form or another; few are part of the high-tech or other export-driven industries.

IRANIAN PRESIDENT IN HELICOPTER ACCIDENT

The major news item this afternoon has, of course, been what appears to be the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. The Iranian President’s helicopter went down near the Azerbaijan border after a meeting with that country's President. The loss of the President and the Iranian Foreign Minister is thought to have a minor impact on events here in Israel. The ultimate decision-maker in the country is the Ayatollah, not the President; however, the President is the one who runs the country on a day-to-day basis.

Raisi was considered an extreme hardliner who, in his previous position, was nicknamed “The Butcher of Iran” for all the people he killed or had killed. Whether Raisi’s replacement will be any more moderate is unknown, but Raisi’s death will destabilize the regime in the short term. Raisi was considered a possible successor to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. With Raisi out of the running, it is possible that a more moderate person might replace Khamenei. The loss of the Foreign Minister is also considered significant, as he was considered very competent at his job, and it will take time to find a qualified replacement, if at all.

LATEST OPINION POLLS

The following is an interesting group of opinion polls from Friday and today:

PEACE WITH PALESTINIANS: WHAT EVERYONE NEEDS TO UNDERSTAND

Gershon Baskin is a well-known peace activist who has had communications over the years with Hamas and was instrumental in negotiating the release of Gilad Shalit.  At the beginning of the war, Baskin unequivocally stated that Hamas must be eliminated. Here’s a post Baskin shared earlier today:

What Everyone Needs to Understand, by Gershon Baskin

**Hamas needs to understand** that Israel will not end the war until all Israeli hostages are returned to Israel.

**Israel needs to understand** that all hostages will not be returned home unless the war ends.

**Hamas and the Palestinians need to understand** that the war will not end unless there is a different regime in Gaza that is not dedicated to the destruction of Israel and the continuation of the Palestinian armed struggle against Israel.

**Israel needs to understand** that there are Palestinians and Palestinian forces ready to take the keys to Gaza from Hamas to control it, provided that Israel ends the war and withdraws from Gaza. Israel needs to understand that this is possible.

**The residents of Gaza need to understand and know** that if Hamas continues to rule Gaza and Israel continues to occupy Gaza, there will be no rehabilitation of Gaza and no international money for rehabilitation.

**Hamas and the residents of Gaza need to understand and know** that if the war does not end and if Hamas continues to rule Gaza, the siege on Gaza will not end.

**Egypt needs to understand** that if there are smuggling tunnels between Gaza and Sinai and they are not permanently closed, Israel will not withdraw from Gaza.

**All countries in the region and the world need to know** that if Hamas continues to rule Gaza and if Israel continues to occupy Gaza, peacekeeping forces led by Arab states or other international forces will not be sent to Gaza.

**The Israelis need to know** that if Gaza remains occupied by Israel, Hezbollah will continue to carry out attacks across its border into Israel.

**The Israelis also need to know** that once the war in Gaza ends and the war with Hezbollah also ends, there is a high chance to remove the threat of Hezbollah attacks against Israel through diplomatic channels. This will also require addressing and resolving disputes over the demarcation of the international border between Israel and Lebanon.

**We all need to understand** that it is possible to bring all the hostages home; it is possible to end the war; it is possible to replace the Hamas regime in Gaza with other responsible Palestinian forces; it is possible to bring an international peacekeeping force led by moderate Arab states to Gaza; it is possible to end the siege on Gaza; it is possible to bring large sums of money for the rehabilitation of Gaza; it is possible to remove the mutual threat between Israel and Hezbollah for years to come; it is possible to launch a renewed genuine peace process that will lead to the end of Israel's occupation and the realization of a genuine two-state solution. All this depends on eliminating the current leadership and bringing in leaders who support all these possibilities! —Gershon Baskin, May 19, 2024**

BUSINESS

The fintech startup Agora, which develops a platform for real estate investment management, has raised $34 million in a Series-B round. The venture capital fund Qumra Capital led the round, with participation from existing investors Insight Partners and Aleph. This new funding brings the company's total investments to $63 million since its inception. Additionally, Sivan Shamri Dahan from Qumra will join the company's board. Agora was founded in 2019 by Bar Mor (CEO), Lior Dolinski (Product Manager), and Noam Kahan (Development Manager), who met during their military service in Unit 8200. The company employs 110 people in Tel Aviv and New York. Agora currently operates primarily in North America, Europe, and Israel. It will use the investment funds to develop innovative products, expand its marketing and sales efforts, and enter new markets, including Central and South America and Australia.

Glassbox is an Israeli company that specializes in software solutions that enhance user experience on websites and mobile applications. On Sunday morning, it announced that it will be sold to Alicorn, a British venture capital fund, for approximately $150 million in cash (about 550 million shekels).

The dollar exchange rate for the deal is 3.67 shekels, making the share price in the agreement 41.3 shekels – 6.5% higher than the share price at the close of trading last week. Glassbox is traded on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange at a valuation of about 460 million shekels, so this is a disappointing end for the company. Glassbox went public on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange in June 2021 with a valuation of about one billion shekels. The stock has since fallen by 60%. The deal is expected to close in the third quarter of 2024. CEO Yaron Morgenstern and the current management team will continue to lead the company.

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A PIECE OF HISTORY

Sinking of the Eilat

Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser convinced the Soviets to resupply his defeated Army, which allowed Nasser to take offensive actions against Israel. Nasser’s first action was against the Israeli Destroyer Eilat. Originally a British Z-class destroyer named HMS Zealous, INS Eilat was acquired by Israel in 1955. The Eilat was a 1,710-ton vessel equipped with a range of guns and anti-aircraft weapons.

On October 21, 1967, INS Eilat was on a routine patrol in international waters off the coast of Port Said, Egypt. The destroyer’s mission was to conduct surveillance and maintain a naval presence in the Mediterranean. At approximately 17:30, the Egyptian Navy launched a surprise attack using Soviet-made P-15 Termit (NATO designation: SS-N-2 Styx) anti-ship missiles from Komar-class missile boats. This unprecedented attack marked one of the first successful uses of anti-ship missiles in combat.

The first missile struck the Eilat amidships, causing significant damage and igniting a severe fire. Shortly after that, a second missile hit, which exacerbated the destruction and spread the blaze. Despite the ship's crew's efforts to manage the crisis, the situation deteriorated rapidly. About an hour later, as rescue operations were being organized, a second wave of missiles struck, causing the Eilat to capsize and sink.

The attack on the Eilat resulted in the deaths of 47 Israeli sailors and officers, with 100 more injured. The loss of INS Eilat was a devastating blow to the Israeli Navy, underscoring the lethal effectiveness of missile technology against traditional surface ships. Rescue efforts were complicated by the ongoing threat of additional missile attacks, but Israeli and foreign vessels in the vicinity managed to save many survivors from the water.

The strategic impact of the Eilat's sinking was profound. It highlighted the vulnerability of surface ships to missile attacks and fundamentally changed naval warfare. Recognizing this new threat, the Israeli Navy and defense establishment swiftly adapted. This led to significant investments in missile defense systems, including developing the Barak anti-missile system and shifting towards smaller, more maneuverable missile boats. These adaptations aimed to enhance the Israeli Navy's ability to respond to and neutralize missile threats. In retaliation for this costly attack, Israel launched a series of airstrikes against Egyptian targets, an act that effectively began the War of Attrition.

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