DAY 188 OF THE GAZA WAR: Tension Remains High About a Potential Iranian Attack, Rafah, Number of Start-Ups Drops
Tel Aviv Diary, April 11, 2024
The atmosphere in Israel continues to be tense, mirroring the initial days of the war. Will there be an Iranian strike in response to our assault on their compound in Damascus? Last night, as I was preparing for bed, the prospects of an attack seemed imminent. Reports from the US indicated that an attack was imminent. Concurrently, reports emerged that Lufthansa had canceled flights to Tehran, and Russia cautioned its residents against traveling to our region. Before falling asleep, I placed my new, large battery pack by the door, just in case it was necessary to rush down to the shelter in the middle of the night.
Morning came, and another day passed, all without incident. Last night, as I shared, President Biden issued a very clear declaration: “Our commitment to protecting Israel from Iran is ironclad—let me repeat, ironclad.” This statement is now being described as Biden’s second decisive “don’t”, echoing his stance at the onset of the war.
Reports indicate that, at the behest of the US, Arab foreign ministers reached out to their Iranian counterpart, imploring him to refrain from taking any action.
In addition, the Commander of CENTCOM (US Central Command) arrived in Israel to discuss a joint strike on Iran should that become necessary as a result of the Iranian strike. Has this collective show of force been sufficient to deter Iran from mounting an attack? The answer is unclear. One report suggests that Iran has decided to hold off on any action temporarily, while other accounts contend that Iran remains undecided. The Israeli government is firmly convinced that Iran will retaliate. It has also emphasized that should an attack originate directly from Iran and not one of its proxies, Israel will retaliate (ideally, along with the US). More days of uncertainty lie ahead.
This evening, there are reports from Iran suggesting that the Iranian government has communicated to the US its intent to retaliate through a proxy so as not to provoke a counterattack. Concurrently, the US has instructed its Embassy personnel to refrain from travel outside of the center of the country.
GAZA
Today, the IDF initiated a Brigade-level offensive in the Nuseirat refugee camp in Central Gaza. This action, coupled with operations in the Deir El-Balah camp (in the same general vicinity), targets two areas where the IDF has not yet removed the Hamas forces. Despite the prevailing focus on Rafah, it's crucial to address the presence of Hamas units in these two camps as well.
HOSTAGES
188 days in Hamas captivity, and unfortunately, there are no new developments to report.
REGARDING RAFAH
I recommend considering these two thoughtful perspectives. The first is presented by esteemed historian Benny Morris in today’s New York Times, in an article titled: “Israel’s Security Depends on Rafah”. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/11/opinion/israel-hamas-rafah-gaza.html In his article, Morris details all the reasons against entering Rafah, but ultimately concludes that it’s a necessary step. As I have written before, I remain skeptical, primarily because I question how effective a Rafah operation could be, unless the action was embedded as part of a larger agreement with Egypt that will ensure the cessation of smuggling through Rafah from Egyptian territory.
The other viewpoint is from my favorite Palestinian-American commentator, whom I’ve quoted previously, Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib:
Many have a false impression of a Rafah invasion by the IDF as being the final chapter in the "elimination" of Hamas. The truth is that the Islamist group cannot be destroyed by eliminating its four remaining battalions in Rafah, as Hamas can replace them within a few months. The effective and sustainable degradation and weakening of Hamas won’t be done through a military campaign with a “mission accomplished” sign and victory parade at the end. Instead, it can only be done through an administrative and political solution that slowly creates an alternative body to Hamas’s entrenched rule. Whoever controls commercial activities, humanitarian aid protection and distribution, and has an executive force on the ground can begin to fill the vacuum and prevent Hamas from reconstituting as a governing power. And make no mistake about it: Hamas has survived the war and, without urgent steps, will re-emerge with enough cohesion after a ceasefire, preventing the supposed “elimination” of the group.
This is where the intransigent arrogance of Netanyahu has been so damaging and destructive. To pander to the extreme right-wing forces within his government and by saying no to everything, he squandered international support that could have been used to sustainably and gradually dislodge Hamas and create reasonable and practical alternatives. Furthermore, he unleashed a destructive war against Gaza to make the strip uninhabitable without recognizing that Hamas would thrive in a Somalia-like atmosphere/landscape and failed to win any goodwill with the population, which should have been separated from militants and protected from unnecessary firepower that killed thousands.
HOUTHIS
Today, USCENTCOM released the following report regarding the Houthis:
Between approximately 4:15 a.m. and 6:00 a.m. (Sanaa time) on April 10, U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) forces successfully engaged three unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. Two UAVs were launched over the Gulf of Aden, and one was launched over the Red Sea. No injuries or damage were reported by U.S., coalition, or commercial ships.
Then between approximately 7:50 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. (Sanaa time), USCENTCOM forces successfully engaged and destroyed eight UAVs in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen in self-defense.
It was determined the UAVs presented an imminent threat to U.S., coalition, and merchant vessels in the region. These actions are taken to protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for U.S, coalition, and merchant vessels.
A VIEW FROM NEW ZEALAND
I’d like to share an excerpt from an e-mail I received from one of Tel Aviv Diary’s loyal readers in New Zealand:
I think our Government is still broadly supportive of Israel in that while it somewhat criticizes Israel, it also calls on Hamas to release the hostages and stop the indiscriminate rocket fire -- and it's calling on both sides to get around the negotiating table seriously. I think that's better than in a lot of other countries where Israel gets all the blame and Hamas is both believed and excused.
However, I don't think the deeper issues are really understood by our Government. A permanent ceasefire now would be a victory for Hamas, and Winston Peters' calls for a two-state solution are incredibly naive if the inbred Palestinian hatred of Israel and the avowed genocidal intent of Hamas (and its ilk) are not addressed. And that will probably take a generation.
In New Zealand we love the underdog. If there's a strike or protest about whatever, drivers-by will usually toot in support, and support for the little guy is pretty much assumed. I drove by a Palestinian support rally a few days ago, and no one was tooting (it was also a pretty rag-tag little group of protesters). As I said earlier, it's not something we tend to talk about, but when we do, I'm surprised at the level of sympathy people have for Israel.
That is good. It is unfathomable to me how we can witness the atrocities that were committed with glee on 7 October and then go and march in support of the very people who committed those acts -- or that journalists and even senior politicians believe the PR machine of a group that openly calls for genocide and treats its own people so murderously.
The media in New Zealand are among the laziest and most sensationalist in the world (I've been in comms and media for 20 years) and they're also pretty woke, but I find the reporting surprisingly more balanced than I expected. But it is not a major daily news issue for us anymore. Gaza usually gets 20-30 seconds as the third or fourth international news spot on the major daily news shows.
DLD_TLV2024
Today, I attended the second day of the DLD (Digital-Life-Design) Conference in Tel Aviv. DLD is an annual event that showcases the latest innovations in the tech world. The information is generally presented from the perspective of 10,000 feet, making it accessible to laypeople and others outside the immediate tech circles. This year marked the first Conference since Covid, and to be honest, it fell short of expectations. Whether due to the choice of venue (the Cinematheque) in Tel Aviv or perhaps because it was the second day, the presentations were poorly attended. While somewhat interesting, I did not come away from any presentation with newfound knowledge or the usual sense of excitement that I felt in previous years.
This might square with the data from IVC, who wrote the following today:
Currently, there are 8,633 active companies in the Israeli tech ecosystem. The data indicates a downtrend in the opening rate of new tech companies. The downtrend started in 2015 and continues, taking us back to the figures for 2008.
In 2022, just 695 new tech companies were established, lower compared to the pick in 2014 (1401 new tech companies). As of 2023, only 388 newly formed companies are known to us.
I have a theory about the recent decrease in the number of start-ups emerging in Israel, and it’s certainly not due to a lack of available financing. Instead, it stems from the presence of numerous top-tier multinational corporations with R&D centers in Israel. Nowadays, veterans from the Army’s elite tech units can easily secure positions working for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, etc., offering salaries comparable to those in America. Many more choose that more secure path over the often risky route of starting a new company.
BUSINESS
Carrar, based near Gaza and at the forefront during the October 7th attack, has recently managed to pique the interest of investors and raise $5.3 million—all thanks to the company's advanced technology, which triples battery life in electric vehicles. While exothermic processes in existing batteries can lead to heat leakage into the vehicle space and battery combustion, Carrar's batteries prevent rapid heat buildup, thereby improving the safety of the electric vehicle. Carrar's batteries maintain an optimal temperature level in all climate types, thereby tripling the battery life and reducing the associated maintenance costs for electric vehicle owners. The Carrar system also prevents heat leakage and combustion, improving the safety of the electric vehicle, the company claims.
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A PIECE OF HISTORY
Reparations From Germany
As Israel’s population more than doubled, the country found itself in desperate need of economic aid. Initially, Israel appealed to the Four Powers occupying Germany, demanding restitution from the Germans for the lives and property lost by the Jewish population. The Four Powers, however, declined to get involved. Left with no other choice, Israeli Prime Minister Ben Gurion reluctantly agreed to consider accepting funds directly from West Germany.
Dr. Nachum Goldmann, head of the World Jewish Congress, met with German Chancellor Adenauer, who concurred that an initial claim of $1 billion would serve as an apt starting point for negotiations regarding the final amount and method of payment. Upon reaching this juncture, Ben Gurion chose to bring the issue before the cabinet and the Knesset for approval.
Menachem Begin, leader of the Herut party, fervently objected. Addressing a large crowd in Zion Square, just a few blocks from the Knesset, Begin expressed his vehement opposition:
When you fired at us with cannons, I gave the order 'No!' Today I shall give the order 'Yes!' This will be a battle of life and death. Today, the Jewish Premier is on the verge of declaring that he will go to Germany to receive money, thereby selling the honor of the Jewish people for monetary gain and casting eternal shame upon us. Every German is a Nazi. Every German is a murderer. Adenauer is a murderer. All of his aides are murderers. Yet, they consider money to be our justice. This abomination will be perpetrated for a few million dollars.
Thereafter, Begin implored the crowd to march towards the Knesset. The Police failed to halt the demonstrators, and during the ensuing violence both outside and within the Knesset, 92 police officers and 32 civilians were injured. In response, Ben Gurion was compelled to deploy the Army to restore order.
The following day, Ben Gurion addressed the nation via radio:
Yesterday, a malevolent hand was raised against the sovereignty of the Knesset — the beginning of an attempt to destroy democracy in Israel. The leader and instigator of this revolt, Mr. Menachem Begin, stood in Jerusalem's Zion Square yesterday, inciting the crowds... I do not dismiss Mr. Menachem Begin’s proclamation that he is preparing for a battle of life or death. As Premier and Defense Minister, I feel duty-bound to assure the people — have no fear! The state possesses sufficient forces and resources to protect Israel’s sovereignty and freedom, to thwart thugs and assassins from seizing control, and to foil sustained acts of terror within the state. The State of Israel will not be turned into Spain or Syria.
On January 9, the Knesset voted 61 to 50 to authorize the government to negotiate a final agreement with Germany. The ensuing agreement, signed between Foreign Minister Sharett and German Chancellor Adenauer on September 10, 1952, known officially as the “Shilumin Agreement,” mandated Germany to pay Israel $820 million in goods and services over a span of 12 years. An additional sum of $120 million was allocated to the Jewish Claims Conference for the compensation of Jews residing elsewhere. These sums have incrementally increased over the years. The initial payment of $820 million played a pivotal role in Israel's growth during the 1950s by providing a significant portion of foreign investment
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While the government-to-government agreement was important, the Bonn Federal Indemnity Law of 1954, which provided funds to individual survivors, was equally significant. This law ensured compensation to individual survivors. By 1964, the German government had dispensed 7 billion Deutsche marks to survivors and their heirs, twice the amount provided by the government-to-government agreement. These payments persist to this day.