DAY 143 OF THE GAZA WAR: More Fighting in North, 10 Km Tunnel Discovered in Gaza, Ultra Orthodox Draft, Two State Solution?
Tel Aviv Diary, February 26, 2024
Our Bi-Weekly Zoom briefing will take place on Sunday, March 3, at 6 PM Israel time, 11 AM EST
THE NORTH
Tensions were notably high in the North tonight, following a day of intense skirmishes. Hezbollah successfully managed to shoot down an Israeli drone, using anti-aircraft missiles. The Israeli Air Force swiftly retaliated, striking the anti-aircraft missile installation, resulting in the deaths of several operators. The targeted anti-aircraft missile site was deep inside Lebanon, almost 100 kilometers from the Israeli border.
Additionally, Israel deployed a drone to attack the vehicle carrying the Hezbollah Division Commander in charge of anti-tank operations.
Al-Debes is the sixth Hezbollah Division Commander to be killed. Hezbollah retaliated by firing 60 rockets at the Golan Heights, which Israel promptly neutralized by destroying the launch site. Tonight, in response to the Israeli action deep in Lebanon, a Hezbollah spokesman declared that Hezbollah would respond in kind.
GAZA
The majority of the combat in Gaza continued in the Zeitoun neighborhood of Gaza City, where an IDF division has been engaged for ten days. Hamas managed to successfully relocate a significant number of fighters back to the Zeitoun area, where the IDF is gradually eliminating them. In addition, the army continues to uncover a substantial number of previously undetected tunnels in the area that were not discovered during the IDF’s initial takeover. One of the recently found tunnels, spans 10 kilometers, connecting the northern and southern parts of Gaza.
The IDF Chief of Staff and the Head of the Shin Bet have traveled to Egypt in recent days to coordinate Israel's movement into Rafah.
Netanyahu stated that the War Cabinet had approved a plan presented by the Army to deliver food to Gaza in such a way that Hamas would not steal it. However, no details were provided on how this task would be accomplished.
HOSTAGES
Israel is still waiting for an answer from Hamas on the framework that was decided in Paris. Initial reports seem negative, this may be merely psychological warfare. Last night, there were reports that Netanyahu had introduced additional demands, such as exiling serious terrorists to Qatar. However, the validity of these claims remain unverified.
One of my readers asked if Netanyahu might be attempting to scuttle the deal. The truth is that no one knows. However, at present, this speculation is somewhat moot, as Hamas has yet to reply.
ULTRA-ORTHODOX DRAFT
The issue of exempting the Ultra-Orthodox came to the forefront today during a Supreme Court session, where the government was forced to defend its failure to draft the ultra-Orthodox, following the expiration of the law that allowed their exemption. The challenge was initiated by a coalition of NGOs, including mothers of active-duty soldiers. The government struggled to justify why it would not be feasible to draft 30,000 individuals simultaneously. When one of the judges suggested beginning with draft 1,000 a year, the government had no response. Consequently, the Supreme Court issued a ruling that places the onus on the government to explain why it should not begin drafting the ultra-Orthodox, by the 24th of March.
A few facts:
12,000 ultra-Orthodox men reach draft age every year (and this number is growing).
Approximately 1,000 ultra-Orthodox men enlist in the army every year, typically after Yeshiva study, for a limited period of service (i.e., basic training to prepare for reserve duty).
2015 saw the highest number of ultra-Orthodox draftees.
There are currently 66,000 ultra-Orthodox of conscription age who have not been enlisted.
TWO STATE SOLUTION?
Martin Indyk, who has played a significant role in Israeli-Arab negotiations and held the position of US Ambassador to Israel, wrote an intriguing article in Foreign Affairs, titled: “The Strange Resurrection of the Two-State Solution: How an Unimaginable War Could Bring About the Only Imaginable Peace.” The essence of the article is succinctly captured by its title. In a lengthy, thoughtfully reasoned piece, Indyk suggests that the current war has unexpectedly revived discussion concerning the idea of a two-state solution. Indyk argues there is an urgent need to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the only viable option is the establishment of two-states. Indyk’s perspective stems from his deep understanding of the complexities of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
It is difficult to express in words the trauma that all Israelis suffered on October 7: the complete failure of the vaunted military and intelligence capabilities of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to protect Israeli citizens; the horrific atrocities committed by Hamas fighters that left some 1,200 Israelis dead and nearly 250 captives in Gaza; the ongoing hostage saga that suffuses every Israeli home with grief and concern; the displacement of border communities in southern and northern Israel. In this context, not surprisingly, Israelis of all stripes have no interest in contemplating reconciliation with their Palestinian neighbors. Before October 7, most Israelis were already convinced that they had no Palestinian partner for peace; today, they have every reason to believe that they were right.
Indyk goes on to write:
Most Palestinians have understandably reached a similar conclusion with regard to the Israelis: the assault on Gaza has killed more than 25,000 Palestinians (including more than 5,000 children), destroyed more than 60 percent of the homes in the territory, and displaced nearly all of its 2.2 million residents. On the West Bank, anger over the war is compounded by the systematic violence of Israeli settlers who have assaulted Palestinians, driven some from their homes, and prevented others from harvesting their olives and grazing their sheep.
Indyk recognizes the difficulty of reaching any agreement, but insists that initiating the process is unavoidable. As I have w ritten before, I concur that the creation of two-states is the only viable solution; however, I remain deeply skeptical about the resolution of this conflict in my lifetime.
INTEREST RATES REMAIN UNCHANGED
Bank of Israel decided not to lower the prime interest rate, in a surprise move, as most analysts expected a decrease due to the low inflation rate and the significant drag the Army has placed on the economy. Therefore, it was expected the Central Bank would lower the rate. When the Governor of the Bank was asked why he decided not to lower the rate, he stated that the current uncertainty in the Israeli economy was too great.
BUSINESS
In 2023, Japanese investments in Israel totaled $662 million, a decrease from $1.55 billion in the previous year and nearly $3 billion in 2021. According to a Harel Hertz report, this investment level mirrors that of 2018. The number of Japanese investments remained consistent with the previous year at 62, indicating a reduction in investment size due to increased risk in Israel. The decline was particularly notable in the latter half of 2023, largely due to concerns over political instability and the conflict with Hamas, significantly affecting Japanese investor activity. Nonetheless, Japanese investments continue to play a key role in Israel's high-tech sector, representing 10% of all investments and 5% of foreign investments, with 62 out of 1175.
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A PIECE OF HISTORY
The Fifth Aliyah
The rise of antisemitism that accompanied the Great Depression of 1929 resulted in a sustained increase in the number of immigrants arriving in Palestine. In 1932, 9,500 immigrants arrived, twice the previous year's figure. In 1933, the year Hitler rose to power in Germany, that number rose to 30,000. In 1934, 42,000 Jews arrived, and in 1935, a total of 62,000 immigrants arrived. Government restrictions dropped the figure to 30,000 in 1936, and the figure continued to decline due to new, restrictive British policies.
From 1929 to 1936, there were 188,000 new immigrants, a number that more than doubled the Jewish population of Palestine. The makeup of the immigrants during this period also changed greatly. Many of the new immigrants came from Germany. They were highly educated, resulting in the Jewish community in Palestine gaining a new class of professionals, including doctors, lawyers, and university professors. Eighty percent of the newcomers during this Fifth Aliyah wave of immigration settled in the cities, with Tel Aviv undergoing astounding growth. The city's population grew from 46,000 in 1931 to 160,000 in 1939 as the city expanded.
Two states is simply not viable until there is some reasonable chance one of those states is not destined to be a terror state. There is no such chance until there is a Palestinian leader who has enough support to go into Jenin and Jabalia (as well as “camps” in Lebanon and Syria) and tell the people there they are not refugees from some some ancestor’s home in what is now Israel but citizens of Palestine and residents of whatever place they currently live and survive. The war will continue as long as the people in those places believe they have a future in what is now Israel.
Good news about the ultra-Orthodox draft issue.
I've wondered why Israel's plight is not taken more seriously in the world. No doubt there are many reasons, but one may be that people go more by actions than words.
Israel may exempt the Ultra-Orthodox from the draft, or Israel may--accurately--claim that this is a war for Israel's very existence, but it cannot do both with credibility.
Indeed, Israel is doing a number of things which are contra-indicated if this is really an all out emergency.
Of course, Israel is hardly unique in this. I'm a Vietnam veteran: the issues the US was fighting for were serious enough for over 58k of us to die, but not quite serious enough for the US to go on a war footing and cut domestic spending--rather it increased. Likewise, the global war on terror was serious enough for massive spending and massive deaths...but again, not serious enough to cut domestic spending. I THINK it's true that the last time the US really took war seriously was WW II: my parents talked of rationing and direct actions by the civilian population to advance the war effort.