DAY 125 OF THE GAZA WAR: Violent Day On Lebanese Border, Rafah, Netanyahu vs Hostage Families, Reserve Duty Uproar

Tel Aviv Diary, February 8, 2024

IN THE NORTH

Today was a day of heightened military activity along the Northern border. Hezbollah launched an anti-tank missile at an IDF base near Kiryat Shmonah, injuring three soldiers. Israel retaliated  by striking a vehicle, resulting in the death of a high-ranking Hezbollah commander.

Hezbollah  then claimed it targeted the Air Force radar base on Mount Meron as a counter response. Additionally, there were multiple rocket attacks on border communities throughout the day.

Tonight — after I started writing this update—Hezbollah fired 30 rockets towards Mt Meron. There were no injuries.

The commander of the Israel Air Force delivered a speech today, warning that in the event of a war with Hezbollah, the Air Force is prepared to simultaneously target hundreds sites across various Lebanese cities. This declaration serves as a clear warning to both Hezbollah and Lebanon regarding the severe implications of engaging in an all-out war

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IN GAZA

The war continues, full force, primarily in Khan Younis. It remains unclear how long it will take to conclude the battles in southern Gaza. In his speech last night, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced he had directed the IDF to advance toward Rafah.

RAFAH

Rafah is the third largest city in Gaza, normally home to about 125,000 residents. Today, the population of Rafah has surged to over 1,000,000 people. Rafah is situated on the border between Gaza and Egypt. Since 1948, 80% of the Rafah’s inhabitants have been refugees. In 1906, under British control, Egypt entered into an agreement with the Ottoman Empire, delineating a border that bisected Rafah into two sections. During World War I, the British emerged victorious in the Battle of Gaza, thereby gaining control of all of Gaza and the rest of Palestine.

During the mandate period, there were no differences between the two sections of Rafah. However, following the mandate's conclusion and the establishment of the State of Israel, Egypt, which governed the Gaza Strip, treated it as an administrative territory rather than as an integral part of Egypt. Consequently, residents on the Gaza side were not awarded Egyptian citizenship.

After the Six-Day War, both sides of the Gaza Strip were reunited and considered equal. Following the Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty and Israel’s withdrawal from all of Sinai in 1981, the town was once again divided, with families split between the two parts. This division prompted construction of the initial tunnels, used to smuggle goods and sometimes people between the two sides of Rafah. Over time, these tunnels evolved into a sophisticated network, facilitating the transport of both goods and people across the border at Rafah. Both Egypt and Israel (during its control of Gaza) attempted to eliminate this tunnel network without success.

Today, Rafah is the only large area of Gaza which Israel has not yet entered. Rafah is widely believed to be the location where many of the hostages are being held. Moreover, it is also evident that without gaining control of Rafah, the goal of “defeating Hamas” cannot be achieved. However, with the population of Gaza now concentrated in Rafah, the task of crushing Hamas in this area appears to be a nearly impossible task.

To further complicate matters, the Egyptian government has cautioned Israel against invading Rafah, fearing that such action would drive refugees into Egypt. I do not envy the military strategists tasked with devising a plan to navigate this daunting and intricate situation. When the war is over, questions will arise regarding why Rafah was not captured initially to prevent terrorists from using it as a sanctuary. However, such inquiries are for a future discussion.

NETANYAHU AND THE HOSTAGES (125 DAYS AND COUNTING …)

Following Prime Minister Netanyahu's press conference last night, it has become apparent that he is largely against any hostage deal that involves painful concessions. Reports have surfaced that Netanyahu has been reprimanding Likud Ministers for not publicly expressing opposition to the current proposed hostage deal during the cabinet meeting. Netanyahu’s stance is clear — He is against it. There are weighty concerns to consider, particularly when balancing the safety of the hostages against the consequences of not dismantling Hamas, and the potential release of numerous prisoners who could engage in future acts of terrorism.

Understandably, the families of the hostages are focused solely on the return of their loved ones, whom they feel were abandoned by the state, which utterly failed to protect them. Their priority is rightfully to see their family members returned home by any means necessary and as quickly as possible. Netanyahu, on the other hand, seeks a dual outcome: he is against a deal but does not want to take responsibility for publicly stating as much. So, Netanyahu has been indirectly criticizing the hostage families through intermediaries.

Hostage families have faced vicious conspiratorial attacks on social media and on Channel 14, (known to be aligned with Netanyahu), and they have even endured some physical harassment on the streets. The other night, a passing motorist stopped to assault a group of hostage families demonstrating for the immediate release their loved ones.

In contrast, a demonstration was held in Jerusalem this evening demanding the Army be given free rein to “fight to victory”. Of course, what “victory” means is very unclear, and without a viable political strategy, victory cannot be achieved. Regrettably, what ever “victory” means, the hostages (those that remain alive) do not have time to wait.

Egypt is attempting to facilitate negotiations to somehow bridge the gap between Hamas's stance and Israel's position. Hamas has sent a representative to talk, however, thus far, Israel has declined to participate. Recent reports suggest that Sinwar has not communicated with Hamas representatives in Egypt or Qatar for the past 10 days, leading to speculation in Israel that he may not have approved the latest Hamas proposal. Whether this is actually the case or merely hopeful thinking remains to be seen.

LENGTHENED ARMY RESERVE DUTY

In last night’s update, I wrote about the Army's plans to increase the durations of service.

Additional information was released this morning, following the presentation of the actual legislation.

Here are the specifics of the new service terms for reservists:

Regular Reservists

Previously, reservists were exempted from reserve duty at the age of 40; under the new regulation, this age has been extended to 46.

Previously, reservists were required to serve an average of 18 days per year on reserve duty. With the new legislation, this obligation will increase to 42 days.

Commanders who previously served an average of 23 days a year, will now be required to serve 48 days.

Reservist Officers

Previously, officers served in reserve duty until age of 45. Under the new regulation, this age has been raised to 50.

The average service duration was 28 days/year, will now increase to 55 days/year.

To say that these changes, significantly extending reserve duty, were met with anger is a profound understatement. Only a small fraction of the population undertakes reserve duty, and compelling this same group to fulfill twice the obligation significantly intensifies the burden on a limited number of individuals.

The new dramatically extended reservist terms of service, once again, brings the elephant in the room to the forefront: if the army requires additional personnel, the obvious source lies in engaging the substantial segment of the population that currently does not serve—i.e., the ultra-Orthodox. However, although the ultra-Orthodox parties have dropped their demand for a bill that permanently exempts their students from army service, they have no plans to encourage them to serve.

My own take on the new manpower plans is that it is too soon to release such a plan. The IDF needs to do two things before it decides how many soldiers it needs. First, it must learn the lessons of October 7th. Many things went wrong on that day, and if some of them had been different, the results might also have been very different. So, first, you need to understand what went wrong. Then, you need a new plan of defense—a thoughtful plan where all alternatives are considered.

Perhaps we don't need that many more soldiers, but rather swarms of drones over every border (not a real proposal, just one of many alternatives that should be analyzed). Only after a new defense strategy is in place will it be possible to decide how many troops are needed, and in turn, the best way to mobilize those troops. It is possible we would not have a new strategy in place for a year, so we’d need more troops to fill the gaps. In such a case, people would be called to reserve duty under emergency regulations — but the entire makeup of the reserve service should not be changed, without that change being based on a carefully thought-out strategy.

BUSINESS

Pagaya Technologies announced it has completed a debt-financing round amounting to $280 million. The fundraising was done directly for the company's needs and not for one of the funds it operates, and is intended for growth purposes, (meaning it may be used by the company for acquisitions and mergers.) Among the investors are a number of leading foreign investors, headed by BlackRock, J.P. Morgan, and Discount Valley Bank (in which Leumi holds a 14% stake), and UBS.

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A PIECE OF HISTORY

The Second Aliyah 1904-1914

The Second Aliyah began in 1904 and continued until 1914. The second Aliyah was made up of young idealist immigrants from Russia and Poland. The Kishinev Pogrom spurred many to leave Europe. Guided by the newly established Zionist organization, numerous potential emigrants were encouraged to consider Palestine as their destination. The immigrants were idealistic and most were socialists. They believed in the power of Jewish labor to transform the country. While the immigrants from the first Aliyah had employed Arabs on their farms, the members of the second Aliyah believed in “Avodah Ivri” (Jewish labor). Members of the second Aliyah founded a number of kibbutzim (communal farms). The first kibbutz was at Degania.

Members of the second Aliyah formed the first Jewish self-defense organization, “Hashomer” (the guardian). The second Aliyah transformed Palestine. Its members also founded Tel Aviv, which became the largest city in Palestine. Moreover, members of the second Aliyah were instrumental in reviving Hebrew as a modern language, establishing labor unions, and laying down the foundational framework for the eventual establishment of the State of Israel. Notable members of the second Aliyah included: David Ben Gurion, Yitzhak Ben Tzvi, and Berl Katznelson.