DAY 113 OF THE GAZA WAR: ICJ Ruling, Preparations for War in Lebanon, UNRWA Funding Cut, Russian Antisemitism

Tel Aviv Diary, January 27, 2024

In normal times, the lead story in the news this time of year would be the weather. It has been raining on and off since Wednesday, and the coming week is expected to bring rain every single day. Mt. Hermon is covered in snow. Typically, news stories would focus on the opening of the ski season and how the streams in the North are flowing freely. Alas, Mt. Hermon is currently closed to visitors, due to constant missile attacks, and has consequently been turned into an Army installation. These days, when we think of rain, our thoughts turn solely to our soldiers, both in Gaza and on the Lebanese border, who have limited protection from the inclement weather.

My comments on Wednesday about the cessation of rocket fire from Gaza proved premature. By Friday, Hamas had resumed launching rockets toward communities near Gaza, including an attack on Ashkelon. Hamas’s renewed rocket barrages continued into Saturday.

In addition, Saturday also witnessed intense firing by Hezbollah along the Lebanese border, involving missile, rocket, and drone strikes throughout the day. Fortunately, no injuries were reported in any of these incidents. The IDF responded with air attacks against Hezbollah targets.

The conflict in Gaza remains focused around Khan Younis, prompting a steady stream of Gaza residents to relocate towards Rafah. The IDF anticipates that the confrontation in Khan Younis will persist for at least another week, possibly longer. In a recent development, the Army spokesperson released a video today, which shows Khan Younis residents evacuating the city, voicing their desire for peace and calling for an end to Hamas's rule.

PREPARING FOR WAR WITH HEZBOLLAH?

On Wednesday, Israel presented its shopping list to the US for a massive arms purchase:

• 25 F-35 fighter jets

• 25 F-15 fighter jets

• 12 Apache helicopters,

• Plus small arms and ammunition

The timeline for Israel’s F-35 jet delivery remains uncertain, as the country is still awaiting the completion of previous orders. It's important to note that Israeli F-35s are equipped with a unique aeronautics package, which differ from the U.S. model. A further complication to the delivery schedule, is Israel's recent decision to purchase additional F-15s, underscoring an ongoing debate within the Israeli Air Force (IAF) about whether to further invest in the F-35s, or to opt for the latest F-15 models.

Israel has a long history with the F-15, dating back to my time in the IAF, in the mid 70’s. Despite its older design, the newest F-15 model offers advanced avionics. A significant advantage of the F-15 is its ability to carry a larger bomb load compared to the F-35.

Additionally, there's an interesting shift in the IAF's strategy: Before the war, the IAF had planned to phase out the last squadron of attack helicopters and replace them with drones. However, the Air Force is now opting to purchase additional attack helicopters.

The significant purchase of reinforcements by the IAF coincides with a report by the Financial Times stating that the Israeli Foreign Ministry reached out to foreign embassies in Israel. According to the report, The Foreign Ministry inquired whether these embassies were equipped with generators and satellite phones in the event of a worsening security situation, which could lead to an extended power outage.

Furthermore, this week the IDF completed a large-scale exercise, simulating an advance into Lebanon.

The combination Israel’s recent arms purchase, the leaked news about the Israeli Foreign Ministry reaching out to embassies in Israel, and the IDF exercise, collectively send a clear message that Israel is preparing for a potential conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The most effective way to avoid conflict and reach a diplomatic settlement, is to convince your enemy that you are fully prepared to engage in battle.

HAMAS PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE

Hamas released a video featuring three young woman hostages. This was the first sign of life received to date for two of the woman. The three are: Daniella Gilboa, Karina Ariev and Doron Steinbrecher.

HOUTHIS

The Houthis continue to attack ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Eden. Today, Houthis attacked an oil tanker carrying Russian oil. In response, The US and the UK continued to attack Houthi targets.

NETANYAHU’S PRESS CONFERENCE

Tonight, Prime Minister Netanyahu conducted his weekly press conference, while demonstrators held their parallel weekly demonstrations — At one location, protesters called on the Prime Minister to resign, while at the another gathering, they rallied to demand the release of the hostages.

Netanyahu’s remarks were notably aggressive tonight. The Prime Minister criticized the families of the hostages, claiming their demonstrations are causing Hamas to increase its demands for the hostages' release.

Also concerning was a widely circulated social media clip in which Yuval Sade, a reporter from the financial newspaper, “Calcalist”, shared he had just completed 100 days of reserve duty and proceeded to pose a question to Netanyahu. Sade asked why the government is allocating 35 million NIS to organizations that assist Yeshiva students in avoiding army service— particularly, during a time when so many are serving in reserve duty. Netanyahu deflected the question and replied: “I am fighting Hamas, while you are fighting me.”

THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE

The International Court Justice issued its ruling regarding the interim actions that should be taken in the case brought by South Africa, claiming Israel was engaging in genocide in its war with Hamas in Gaza.

Before the announcement, Israel's primary concern was that the Court might mandate a stop to the fighting. Israel anticipated that it could comply with any other directive the Court might issue without too much difficulty.

Our family gathered to view the proceedings. It was challenging to listen to all the arguments as they were made, which were first very technical, and then procedural. Though then came the problematic part for Israel. The Court’s task was not to determine whether genocide was taking place in Gaza, but rather, to assess if there was a credible argument that genocide could be occurring. Relying on various reports from UN workers in Gaza, many of whom are Hamas members, the Court concluded that such a scenario could be plausible.

Even if we trust the figures provided by Hamas, one aspect of the Court’s argument seemed a stretch. The Court defined genocide “as an attempt to eliminate a substantial portion of a group.” So, even if we accept their claim that 23,000 Gazans were killed, including 10,000 Hamas members, it remains unclear how that sum constitutes a portion of the Gaza population significant enough to be potentially considered genocide. Upon hearing these assertions and accusations, I, and likely tens of thousands of Israelis listening (as the proceeding was broadcast live on all Israeli networks), were concerned the Court might rule in favor of South Africa's demands and call for an immediate halt to the war.

However, as President of the International Court of Justice, Joan E. Donoghue continued her long reading of the decision, Donoghue stated that the Court is not compelled to implement the actions requested by South Africa. At that point, it became clear that the Court would not mandate an end to the war. However, the Court did call on Israel to ensure that no genocide takes place. The Court also called for Israel to increase humanitarian aid, as well as stop all political rhetoric advocating genocide.

Israeli judge Aaron Barak voted in favor of the Court’s call for additional humanitarian aid, and to stop any calls for genocide.

Two notable positive facets of the Court's statement was its strong appeal for the immediate release of the hostages, without any preconditions, and the assertion that Israel possesses the right to self-defense.

Judge Aaron Barak released a dissent. In his statement Barak describes how he lived through genocide. I will present a few excerpts from Barak’s response, but it is undoubtedly worthwhile to read his entire long dissent. You can find the text of Barak’s dissent here.

I was five years old when, as part of Operation Barbarossa, the German army occupied the city in which I was born  Kaunas  in Lithuania. Within a few days, almost 30,000 Jews in Kaunas were taken from their homes and put into a ghetto. It was as if we were sentenced to death, awaiting our execution. On 26 October 1941, every Jew in the ghetto was instructed to gather in the central square, known as “Democracy Square”. Around 9,000 Jews were taken from the square on that day and executed by machine gun fire.

6. Genocide is more than just a word for me; it represents calculated destruction and human behavior at its very worst. It is the gravest possible accusation and is deeply intertwined with my personal life experience.

11. As a judge in the Israeli Supreme Court, I wrote that every Israeli soldier carries with him (or her), in their backpack, the rules of international law. This means that international law guides the actions of all Israeli soldiers wherever they are. I also wrote that when a democratic State fights terrorism, it does so with one hand tied behind its back. Even when fighting a terrorist group like Hamas that does not abide by international law, Israel must abide by the law and uphold democratic values.

20. Hamas has vowed to “repeat October 7 again and again”. Hamas is thus an existential threat to the State of Israel, and one that Israel must repel. This terrorist organization rules over the Gaza Strip, exercising military and governmental functions. Hamas seeks to immunize its military apparatus by placing it within and below civilian infrastructure, which is itself a war crime, and intentionally places its own population at risk by digging tunnels under their homes and hospitals.

Hamas fires missiles indiscriminately at Israel, including from schools and other civilian installations in Gaza, in the full knowledge that many of them will fall inside Gaza, causing death and injuries to innocent Palestinians. This is Hamas’s well-known modus operandi.

38. The evidence presented by Israel shows that it is the opposite intent that is plausible and guides the military operation in Gaza. Israel pointed out that it has adopted several measures to minimize the impact of hostilities on civilians. For example, Israel continues to supply its own water to Gaza by two pipelines; it has increased access to medical supplies, facilitated the establishment of field hospitals and distributed fuel and winter equipment (see Order, para. 64, referring to CR 2024/2, pp. 50-52). Furthermore, the Prime Minister of Israel stated on 17 October 2023 “[a]ny civilian death is a tragedy. . . we’re doing everything we can to get the civilians out of harm’s way,” and on 28 October 2023 that “the IDF is doing everything possible to avoid harming those not involved”.

US FREEZES UNRWA FUNDS

On Friday, after receiving credible intelligence that UNRWA workers were involved in the October 7th massacre, the State Department released the following statement:

The United States is extremely troubled by the allegations that twelve UNRWA employees may have been involved in the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack on Israel. The Department of State has temporarily paused additional funding for UNRWA while we review these allegations and the steps the United Nations is taking to address them.

UNRWA reacted by firing seven workers. Further investigations are ongoing. Joining the US in cutting off UNRWA funding are: Canada, the UK, Italy,Germany, and Finland. The UN promised an investigation into UNRWA.

HISTORY OF RUSSIAN ANTISEMITISM

The State Department published an interesting report on the History of Russia. Here is summary of the findings they released:

The U.S. Department of State’s Global Engagement Center today released a report highlighting over a century of antisemitism exploitation by Russian leaders, from Tsarist times to Vladimir Putin's regime, in disinformation and propaganda campaigns. These efforts aim to discredit and weaken opponents both domestically and internationally. The report cites examples like Russia's portrayal of Ukraine and its allies as Nazis, attacking Ukraine’s Jewish president, and distorting the Holocaust. The report traces this tactic back to the Tsarist Security Service’s creation of the "Protocols of the Elders of Zion," further developed by the Soviet Union for totalitarian control. It details how modern Kremlin intelligence and media continue spreading antisemitic disinformation globally to advance their harmful objectives.

https://www.state.gov/more-than-a-century-of-antisemitism-how-successive-occupants-of-the-kremlin-have-used-antisemitism/

INTERNET ATTACKS ON JEWISH SITES

CloudFlare, one of the largest networks on the internet, has a Project called “Galileo”, which is  committed to safeguarding Jewish and Holocaust educational websites.

In 2023, CloudFlare's defenses mitigated over 35.7 million malicious HTTP requests that targeted Jewish and Holocaust educational websites. This represents a staggering 2,190% increase in malicious requests, compared to 1.6 million requests in 2022. This figure includes all types of application-layer cyber attacks, including Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks that aim to take down websites and all other common application attacks that were mitigated by our Web Application Firewall (WAF) suite. On average, CloudFlare mitigated 4,000 malicious requests every hour.