DAY 11 OF THE IRAN • DAY 626 OF THE WAR: Is the End of the War in Sight?; Iran Stages Limited Attack on U.S. Forces; Trump Thanks Iranians for Advance Warning; Israel Targets Regime Symbols in Tehran

Tel Aviv Diary, June 23, 2025

One day after the U.S. strike on Iran, a sense of tense anticipation hangs in the air, as the region waits to see which direction the conflict will take next. In some respects, the war continues unabated. Israel, for its part, has escalated its operations, concentrating significant efforts today on targets in Tehran.

Among the sites struck were symbols of the Iranian regime, including a base belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), where a large number of personnel were reportedly killed. Israeli forces also destroyed the countdown clock in central Tehran that marks the time remaining until Israel's supposed destruction—an emblem of Iran’s hostility toward the Jewish state. In a further symbolic blow, Israel targeted the gate of Evin Prison, Iran’s most infamous detention center, known for housing a high number of political prisoners.

While the strike on the prison did not result in the release of detainees, it conveys a message: a desire to liberate those in Iran who seek a different path forward. Yet despite this show of force and symbolism, the broader strategy remains unclear. The way ahead—for both Israel and those hoping for change within Iran—remains uncertain.

IS THE END OF THE IRAN WAR IN SIGHT?

Reports emerged today suggesting that Israel has conveyed to Iranian officials its desire to bring the current round of hostilities to a close within the coming days. This aligns with assessments from Israeli sources indicating that the Air Force has only a limited number of high-value targets remaining.

While additional targets can no doubt be identified—given Iran’s vast geography—Israeli forces have already struck the majority of strategic sites, including a substantial portion of the country’s missile launchers. In parallel, Israel has been systematically dismantling the production and supply chains responsible for manufacturing those missiles and their launch systems. This targeted campaign is designed not only to weaken Iran’s immediate military capabilities, but also to significantly hinder its ability to rebuild once the conflict subsides—an outcome Israeli officials reportedly view as essential to long-term deterrence.

Israeli aircraft struck the access roads leading to the Fordow nuclear facility today, in what appears to be an effort to isolate the site following earlier attacks. The strikes were aimed at preventing the removal of any remaining nuclear materials from the heavily damaged plant, as well as blocking rescue or recovery teams from entering to retrieve personnel or salvage equipment that may have survived the initial assault.

The prevailing assessment in Israel today is that while Fordow nuclear facility was not completely destroyed, it sustained severe damage that could render it inoperable for years— if restoration is even deemed feasible. And of course, the Natanz facility, previously hit by Israeli airstrikes, is believed to have been totally obliterated, along with whatever site was struck by the United States in Isfahan.

Israel’s latest battle damage assessment offers a notably optimistic view of the recent strikes, highlighting the scale of destruction inflicted on key Iranian facilities. However, opinions remain divided among Israeli analysts and officials over the extent to which Iran’s nuclear program has been meaningfully set back.

Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak and other senior Israeli figures have argued that, despite the scale of the recent military operation, Iran’s nuclear program may have only been delayed by a matter of weeks. Barak emphasized that while the strikes achieved significant tactical objectives, only a political resolution can meaningfully push back Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Others in the Israeli defense and intelligence community estimate that the current operation may have set Iran’s nuclear program back by one to three years. Yet across the spectrum, there is broad consensus on one point: a lasting solution will require either a negotiated political settlement or, of course, regime change—an outcome often discussed in policy circles, but seen as unlikely without a decisive shift from within the Iranian population.

Some in Israel have begun to voice concern that the conflict with Iran may be slipping into a war of attrition. That assessment seems a little premature. This current war is only 11 days old, and initial expectations suggested it could last at least two weeks. Declaring a protracted stalemate at this stage may be jumping the gun.

Moreover, despite Tehran’s rhetoric about its readiness for a prolonged conflict, along with many in Israel, I remain skeptical of Iran’s actual capacity to sustain one. The Iranians continue to launch missiles at us, but their operational impact has so far been relatively limited.

IRAN CONTINUES MISSILE ATTACKS; MINIMAL DAMAGE REPORTED

Overnight, we were woken up at 3 AM by blaring air raid sirens, and all trekked down to the bomb shelter. After about 20 minutes, people cautiously returned to their homes and tried to go back to sleep.

Shortly before 10:30 a.m. this morning, we received alerts of an incoming missile attack from Iran. Missiles had been launched, initially targeting northern Israel, and then soon after, our area. We all trekked down to the bomb shelter again. This time, the situation was a bit unusual because there was a specific warning of an incoming missile in our immediate vicinity—i.e., the Tel Aviv, Ramat Gan, Herzliya areas—yet, in Tel Aviv, it never escalated into a direct missile warning.

The Iranians launched five small barrages in total, each consisting of only a few missiles. Israeli defense officials estimate that between 15 and 20 missiles were launched in today’s Iranian barrage. Only one missile caused damage, landing near an electrical substation outside Ashdod and triggering a short-term power outage in several nearby communities.

Despite the limited impact, the Home Front Command announced that the current alert level will remain in effect through at least tomorrow night. Officials cited the expectation of continued missile fire—something widely anticipated—as well as the persistent risk of further escalation.

Ultimately, I don't believe the current conflict could evolve into a long-term war of attrition. While Iran is a large and populous country, its capacity to endure a drawn-out conflict is seen as limited—particularly with such an uneven battlefield, where Israel maintains complete control of their airspace.

Israel continues to hold undisputed control of the skies, enabling it to strike economic infrastructure and symbolic government targets with relative ease. Experts note that Israel could disable large portions of Iran’s power grid within minutes and severely disrupt its oil exports—moves that could paralyze the Iranian economy with little effective resistance.

IRAN RETALIATES WITH LIMITED STRIKE AGAINST U.S.

Tonight, Iran launched a limited attack on U.S. bases in Qatar. The facilities were reportedly empty at the time, and any damage is expected to be minimal. One report suggests the incident may have been largely symbolic, allegedly orchestrated with the involvement of Qatari officials. While this will probably mark the end of this episode, we will have to wait to be sure

.

Tonight, President Trump thanked the Iranians for providing the United States with advance notice about their attack, crediting the warning with preventing casualties. Trump wrote:

I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their ‘system,’ and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE.

I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost and nobody to be injured. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to peace and harmony in the region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same.

IMPACT OF THE IRAN WAR

The Israeli government has unveiled a plan to assist small businesses forced to shut down due to the ongoing conflict with Iran. In parallel, the flow of returning Israeli citizens continues to grow, with many arriving via Jordan and Egypt. Commercial flights through Ben Gurion Airport remain operational, with approximately 3,000 Israelis expected to return today, and another 1,000 Israelis anticipated to depart.

The Ministry of Finance released several key statistics today. To date, 36,455 people have requested compensation for damages; 10,996 people have been accommodated in hotels; and 4,000 individuals have relocated to stay with friends and family.

Today’s Radio Show

DERI SPARKS OUTRAGE OVER OCTOBER 7 REMARK

In a highly controversial statement last night, Aryeh Deri, head of the Shas party and a close confidant of Prime Minister Netanyahu, said in a televised interview—Thank God October 7th happened, because otherwise we would not have destroyed the Iranian nuclear threat.