A New Government On Sunday? If Yes How Long Will it last?

Israel the week ending June 11

Over the years, I, and scores of others, have written so many articles eulogizing the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that it is hard to believe this is most likely the last weekend of Netanyahu’s reign. As of 2:10 PM on Friday afternoon, every coalition partner had signed their final coalition agreement. While all indications point to the successful swearing-in of the new government on Sunday, nothing can ever be certain until it happens. 

Nevertheless, the tone has changed among Netanyahu supporters and other Likud members. They have accepted the end of the Netanyahu era. Now they have pivoted to claiming the new coalition will not last. You can see the tonal shift from my appearance with former Likud MK and current head of the Likud court Michael Kleiner, yesterday. The Likud talking points are no longer focused on whether or not they form a government, but rather, how long the government they form will last. 

I must give Kleiner credit. Last year, off-camera, he said to me that Netanyahu had better honor his rotation agreement with Gantz. Otherwise, it will be the end of him. In a Newsweek column I have written, but which will not go live until the new government is officially sworn in, I argue that this new government will not only survive but will accomplish more than expected. I should note that I reached out to many of the new coalition leaders for a quote, promising them I would destroy the article if things went sideways. None of them were willing; no one wanted to tempt fate when they are so close.

Netanyahu is convinced that if he leaves Balfour, he will be quick to return. Toppling a government is not as easy as it once was. A no-confidence vote in a government does not result in its falling. Even following a vote of no-confidence, a government only falls if an alternative government can be produced, or no if the state budget is passed. The new coalition is planning to pass a two-year budget in its first 120 days. That notwithstanding, Netanyahu is leaving several land mines for the new government. 

First booby-trap is the delayed ‘Flag March’ is currently scheduled to proceed through the Muslim Quarter, on Monday.

The new government is expected to stop the march, or minimally ensure it remains in the Jewish Quarter. But the new Minister for Homeland Security can expect to be attacked immediately for giving in to threats of terror, for not allowing the provocative march. The second land mine is the destruction of the new illegal settlement of Evyatar. Destroying a settlement built in the last month is nothing new. However, the event will be used to attack the new government for being “radical leftists," once again.

The final immediate problem is the transfer of Qatari money to Gaza. The Netanyahu government had encouraged Qatar to provide cash to pacify both Gaza and Hamas. Even the most enthusiastic supporters of the policy, such as the outgoing Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, admit that the policy was a mistake. Currently, the government has blocked any more transfers, trying to use the halt in payments as leverage to obtain the bodies of our two soldiers who fell in 2014 and two hapless civilians who wandered into Gaza. Hamas threatens to resume attacks if it does not receive the money. 

In short, the new government will need to be ready to hit the ground running from the moment it is sworn in. Luckily, one critical job is not changing hands; as Benny Gantz will remain as Defense Minister, providing one case of essential continuity.

MILITARY

An affair that has riveted Israel is the prison death of a young officer from the intelligence branch, charged with taking actions that could have had grave security implications. The officer who was said to be brilliant, earning a college degree in Computer Science by age 17, died under mysterious circumstances. It is assumed the young man committed suicide, although the matter remains under investigation. According to the army, he was stopped before he could harm Israel's security, motivated by what has been deemed personal reasons, this officer was not a foreign agent of any kind. Because of the nature of his work, and the nature of his crime, there has been heavy censorship of the case, all of which adds to the mystery of the matter.

ECONOMY

In less than half of 2021, Israeli tech companies have already raised a staggering $10.5 billion, matching the total raised in 2020, which itself constituted a new record. Interestingly the number of new startups has gone steadily down — from 1,400 in 2014, to 750 this past year. However, the startups that do exist have been raising exponentially more money, faster than before.

An exciting startup in Qiryat Shmona (far Northern Israel) MigVax Ltd. announced that its oral vaccine for Covid-19 had been shown effective in pre-clinical trials. It hopes to move to Phase 1, followed by Phase 2 clinical trials, shortly.