A Grim Milestone: 300 Days of War, Hostages Still Captive in Gaza, Israel Waits to be Attacked
Tel Aviv Diary, August 1, 2024
ZOOM BRIEFING:
Sunday, August 4th, 6PM Israel time | 4 PM GB | 11 AM EDT, 8 AM PDT
F.Y.I. [PERSONAL UPDATE] … I am excited to share that I'll be visiting the U.S. for a short stay this September! I am scheduled to speak in Elmira, NY, on September 9th to delve into "The Current War: Looking Forward." If you're interested in arranging for me to speak to your community, I am available for additional speaking engagements around that date—either just before or just after. Reach out now to schedule an event!
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Today marks the 300th day of the war—a profoundly grim milestone. For 300 days, our hostages, those still alive, have been languishing in the custody of dastardly Hamas terrorists. For 300 days, we have been engaged in the longest war in Israel's history—with no end in sight. For 300 days, tens of thousands of Israelis have been refugees within their own country. For 300 days, those responsible for what is considered the darkest day in Israel's history still hold positions of power and command.
It is excruciatingly difficult to see the hostage families. I give credit to the Israeli media for continually keeping their story in the public eye. It would be easier to forget, but we must not forget. We need to feel their pain and empathize with their suffering. I make it a point to walk through Hostage Square every morning; I wish I could do more. I vividly remember the brief moment of hope three months ago, following President Biden’s announcement of the ceasefire and hostage release plan, co-developed with Netanyahu. The day before this announcement, I appeared on TV alongside a former commander of the elite commando unit, Sayeret Matkal. We both expressed deep pessimism about our situation at the time.
The following day, we both returned to the show to discuss the new developments. That Saturday morning, and at least until the afternoon when Netanyahu issued one of his many statements undermining the deal, we were optimistic. We believed that the war might at least temporarily cease, the hostages would be returned, and our strategic situation could improve. However, that optimism was short-lived, and it's been almost three months since then. The war could have ended at any point during this time, but Netanyahu has been unwilling to pay the political price. Instead, he has been insisting on “total victory,” the specifics of which continue to remain unclear.
We have achieved some success in recent weeks. Today, the IDF confirmed that their operation three weeks ago successfully eliminated Mohammed Deif. The Army finally received “golden intelligence information,” providing conclusive evidence verifying Deif’s death. Consequently, Israelis could once again “celebrate” the demise of Deif. However, the pressing questions remain: Where do we go from here? How do we bring this conflict to an end? At this point, no one knows
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Today was an unusually quiet day in Israel. For the past two days, there have been no attacks from Lebanon. This pause leads me to believe they are reserving their rockets and missiles for a significant assault that we anticipate in the coming hours. Tonight, there was a barrage on the Western Galilee. The IAF subsequently destroyed the rocket launcher. Waiting is difficult. This afternoon, Hezbollah’s leader Nasrallah delivered a statement. Among other remarks, Nasrallah warned: "You don't know the red line you have crossed. We have entered a new phase in all arenas." Nasrallah also declared that Israel's killing of Fuad Shukr would “definitely” provoke a response. Additionally, Nasrallah cautioned that rocket fire from southern Lebanon into northern Israel would resume on Friday.
Nasrallah denied the organization was involved in the rocket attack on Majdal Shams, which caused the deaths of 12 children and teenagers. Nasrallah stated:
The enemy is lying when it says that Shukr is responsible for the attack on Majdal Sham. We said we did not carry out the attack. We have the courage to say it wasn't us. We conducted an in-depth investigation and reported that it wasn't us.
Nasrallah asserted that some experts believe the casualties were caused by an Iron Dome interceptor missile. Furthermore, Nasrallah offered condolences to the Druze families who lost children in the Majdal Shams attack. "The enemy's goal is to incite inter-sectarian conflict between the Druze and other religious groups," he explained. Nasrallah is attempting to claim that Israel's attack in Lebanon was not based on any actions attributed to him.
Today, after visiting the IDF’s Home Front Command, Netanyahu stated that, “We are prepared for whatever may come.”
The expectation is that the attacks from Lebanon will precede any from Iran. A coordinated assault would actually afford Israel more preparation time, as Iranian missiles are liquid-fueled and require pre-launch preparation. Israeli and American intelligence would be able to monitor this activity in real time, providing us with significant advance warning. However, Hezbollah is likely to launch attacks with less notice.
Everyone tries to put on a brave face. From my perspective, the current situation is less terrifying than the era of suicide bombings, when you did your best to stay away from buses, and you never knew when the next horrific event might take place. My favorite café is owned by a young man who only recently completed his military service. Tonight, he was worried and decided to close early. However, in other places, people continue dining out as usual.
In the meantime, the Army has instructed all factories in the North that handle ammonia to close down if they are within 40 km of the border. This precaution is based on the expectation of intense rocket fire from Lebanon, likely beginning in the morning.
DEATH OF ISMAEL HANIYEH
New information was confirmed today that, indeed, Ismail Haniyeh was killed by a bomb that was placed long before he got there. The Iranians reported that it was a missile, but that was because they were embarrassed that a spy could have gotten into their official guest house and placed a bomb.
300 Days of Captivity: Rally for Hostage Families
Tonight, the families of the hostages organized a large rally to mark 300 days of captivity. It's so hard to grasp the reality of 300 days, especially considering the conditions for those still alive in captivity. Equally perplexing is how we can accurately target specific individual sites in Beirut and Tehran yet remain unable to locate our hostages, who are believed to be very nearby.
BIDEN AND NETANYAHU SPEAK
Tonight, President Biden and Vice President Harris spoke to Prime Minister Netanyahu. Here is the White House’s readout of the call:
Readout of President Joe Biden’s Call with Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel
President Biden spoke today with Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel. The President reaffirmed his commitment to Israel's security against all threats from Iran, including its proxy terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The President discussed efforts to support Israel’s defense against threats, including against ballistic missiles and drones, to include new defensive U.S. military deployments. Together with this commitment to Israel’s defense, the President stressed the importance of ongoing efforts to de-escalate broader tensions in the region. Vice President Harris also joined the call.
GAZA
The Army issued the following statement regarding operations in Gaza today:
In a joint operation by the Shin Bet and the IDF, a fighter jet attacked and eliminated Ismail al-Ghoul, a member of Hamas's military wing and a Nukhba terrorist who took part in the murderous massacre on October 7.
Additionally, as part of his role in the military wing, he instructed others on how to document the fighting and actively participated in documenting and disseminating videos of attacks against IDF forces. His activities were an integral part of the terrorist organization's military operations.
The IDF and Shin Bet are making every effort to target and eliminate terrorists who participated in the October 7 massacre, and they will continue to do so.
The problem with the announcement was that it was a day late. And the international press for a day claimed that we had killed a journalist.
OLYMPIC SILVER & BRONZE
Israel received some uplifting news today when its judo athletes secured two medals. Inbar Lanir won the silver medal, while Peter Paltchik took home a bronze medal.
FINANCIAL HEALTH OF ULTRA-ORTHODOX SCHOOLS
The two largest state-funded haredi school systems in Israel, Chinuch Atzma’i and B’nei Yosef, will undergo significant organizational changes due to flawed financial conduct. This decision, outlined in a letter from Israel’s Accountant, General Yali Rothenberg, to officials in the Finance, Justice, and Education Ministries, marks the culmination of a political and legal saga that began in February. At that time, Rothenberg first notified the two systems of financial irregularities. Together, these systems educate over 100,000 students and employ thousands of staff. Although they receive full state funding and have been granted more than NIS 3 billion annually in recent years, they operate independently of the national public school system.
Despite receiving substantial funding and having direct connections to government bank accounts, these education systems have not been subject to the same level of oversight as public schools. The presence of a publicly appointed accountant enabled these systems to claim their finances were managed by the state, thereby avoiding effective financial scrutiny. The February report revealed that Chinuch Atzma’i bypassed its accountant, accruing a tax liability exceeding NIS 80 million and operational debts of more than NIS 300 million. Additionally, Chinuch Atzma’i faces numerous legal challenges, including six class-action lawsuits for alleged employee rights violations, potentially adding hundreds of millions of shekels to its debt.
In response to these findings, Rothenberg stated that the two school systems would be responsible for settling their debts independently, without state assistance. Starting with the upcoming school year, these systems will lose direct access to state bank accounts and will no longer be assigned a Finance Ministry accountant. Instead, they will be required to establish their own financial departments headed by qualified CFOs. Additionally, the Accountant General’s Office will establish a special unit dedicated to overseeing their financial activities, ensuring more stringent financial conduct and accountability moving forward.
INTERNATIONAL AIRLINES SUSPEND SERVICE
Today, 70,000 passengers were expected to pass through Ben Gurion airport, most of them Israelis embarking on their traditional August vacation. Unfortunately, many will not be able to depart, and tens of thousands of Israelis currently abroad are now stranded. As I wrote last night, United and Delta Airlines have canceled their flights to Israel, with United suspending service until further notice. European airlines are following suit, and once again, leaving travelers without tickets on El Al (or the smaller Israeli carriers, Arkia and Israair) out of options. El Al simply does not have the capacity to transport all the necessary passengers—and the fact that it does not operate on Saturdays significantly reduces its availability. Consequently, some Israelis who were considering travel have canceled their plans, fearing that they might end up stranded.
BUSINESS
Teads
The Israeli content recommendation company Outbrain is acquiring Teads, which operates in its field, for $1 billion from the Altice media group owned by the Israeli-French businessman Patrick Drahi, who also owns the Israeli telecommunications company HOT and i24 News.
The deal will include a cash component of $750 million, $275 million in stock exchange, and $25 million in future compensation contingent on Teads’ performance after the acquisition is completed. The cash component of the deal will be financed through a loan that Outbrain will take, likely from institutional entities or through the issuance of bonds in the capital market. The company’s stock jumped by 8% in pre-market trading.
Mobileye
Mobileye's stock fell today on Wall Street after exceeding analysts' forecasts for the second quarter of the year but revising its annual forecast downward. Mobileye now expects to generate less revenue and incur more losses than previously anticipated. Compared to the original forecast of $1.83-1.96 billion in revenue, an operating loss (GAAP) of $378-468 million, and an adjusted operating profit (Non-GAAP) of $270-360 million, the new forecast predicts revenues of $1.6-1.68 billion, an operating loss of $531-580 million, and an adjusted operating profit of $152-201 million.
Elbit Systems Ltd.
Elbit Systems announced today that it was awarded an approximately $340 million contract to supply ammunition to the Israeli Ministry of Defense (IMOD). The contract will be performed over a period of 10 years, and Elbit Systems will establish a manufacturing facility to produce the ammunition. Bezalel (Butzi) Machlis, President and CEO of Elbit Systems said:
We continue to expand our production infrastructure and capabilities to support our customers. I thank the IMOD for the trust placed in our management and employees. Elbit Systems continues to develop, manufacture, and deliver top-tier technological solutions and combat-proven products to our customers in Israel and worldwide.
Notably, it’s remarkable that it has taken us this long to establish independence in ammunition production, a capability we once possessed during the War of Independence.
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A PIECE OF HISTORY
Jordanian Soldier Kills Israeli Teens
On March 14, 1997, a tragic incident occurred at the Island of Peace in the Jordan Valley when a Jordanian soldier opened fire on a group of Israeli schoolgirls. Seven girls were killed, and six others were wounded in this devastating attack. The perpetrator, identified as Ahmed Mustafa, a 23-year-old Army driver from a nearby village, was apprehended after his rifle jammed. The motive for the assault remained unclear initially. Although some reports indicated the soldier may have been unstable, Jordanian authorities did not immediately release any details from his interrogation.
Eyewitness accounts painted a chilling picture of the attack as it unfolded. Initially, the girls heard gunfire near a watchtower, prompting teachers to shout for them to find cover. The soldier then approached and fired at close range while the girls frantically tried to escape.
Survivors shared their terrifying experiences, with 14-year-old Ashrat Abutbul recalling: "We rolled down, and I thought that we were all going to die together and that no one would stay alive." Teacher Rosa Himi provided a chilling description of the soldier's actions:
He kept on shooting all the time, and after a few minutes, he was already at the edge of the slope; he stood at a face-to-face distance and simply began mowing us down, one by one.
In the aftermath of the tragedy, King Hussein of Jordan extended a powerful gesture of reconciliation by visiting the families of the slain girls. During these emotional, heartfelt encounters, the King expressed his deep sorrow, telling each family, "Your daughter is like my daughter. Your loss is my loss." He knelt before each family, begging for forgiveness in a profound, sincere display of empathy and an attempt to heal the wounds inflicted by this appalling act. This gesture of contrition highlighted the gravity of the situation and King Hussein’s commitment to maintaining peace and understanding between the two nations despite the shocking, brutal nature of the attack.