DAY 367 OF THE WAR: Bibi Blocks Gallant’s DC Visit, Soldier Killed In Gaza, Fourth Division Enters Lebanon, Hezbollah Fires Over 100 Rockets at Haifa

Tel Aviv Diary, October 8, 2024

The second year of the war began with the announcement of the death of First Sergeant Noam Israel Abdu (20), who was killed during combat in northern Gaza.

While significant attention has been focused on the northern front, ongoing intense combat persists in Gaza as well. Recently, the IDF confirmed the deaths of three terrorists implicated in the October 7 massacre. On September 30 and October 1, 2024, the IDF conducted two counterterrorism operations in Gaza. The initial strike aimed at a Hamas command and control complex located in the former Shuja'iyya school in Daraj Tuffah. This operation resulted in the elimination of Mohammad Rafa'i, a Hamas operative involved in the October 7 attacks on Kfar Aza and Nahal Oz. The subsequent mission in Rafah neutralized two additional Hamas terrorists, Mohammad Zanon and Basel Akhras, who were also involved in the October 7 massacre and were believed to be planning further attacks on Israeli civilians.

The primary IDF activities in Gaza continue to be centered in Jabalya, where Abdu was killed. Currently, there still seems to be no definitive strategy for Gaza's future— and it is estimated that Hamas has recruited 5,000 new members since the onset of the war, aiming to rebuild its forces. Following weeks of speculation regarding Sinwar's possible death, recent reports suggest he has reestablished contact with Qatar. This development could potentially pave the way for renewed negotiations regarding the release of hostages, although the chance of success remains quite limited.

NETANYAHU BLOCKS GLANTZ’S D.C. VISIT

Prime Minister Netanyahu informed Defense Minister Gallant that his departure to the United States to meet Secretary of Defense Austin must be postponed, until Netanyahu speaks with President Biden and Israel’s Security Cabinet convenes to authorize the nature of the planned retaliatory on Iran. The holdup may be connected to revelations in Bob Woodward’s new book, “War,” which CNN obtained in advance. The book reportedly contains critical comments made by Biden about Netanyahu. Here are some of the more “colorful” remarks Biden made about Netanyahu, as cited in the book:

“Bibi, You don’t have a strategy!”

After Israel entered Rafah, Biden said of Netanyahu:

“He’s a fucking liar.”

“That son-of-a-bitch, Bibi Netanyahu, he’s a bad guy,” said Biden.

Privately, according to Woodward, Biden said: “He’s a bad fucking guy!”

Former Defense Minister Gantz criticized Netanyahu for blocking Gallant’s trip, stating that the visit was essential for Israel and accused Netanyahu of politicizing the nation's security.

Gallant announced tonight that he has delayed his trip.

It should be noted that Defense Minister Gallant is one of the only members of the current Israeli government that the American administration trusts.

LEBANON

Israel has deployed an additional division to augment the forces fighting in Lebanon, marking the entry of the first reserve division to enter the country. Concurrently, the Army is targeting a series of Lebanese villages that were used to launch direct attacks on Israel. Unlike the intense battles of 2006, the IDF has managed to take control of these villages with relative ease

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A year of targeting Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, coupled with the current chaos within Hezbollah, has significantly impacted the situation. Additionally, the Army announced the discovery of a small tunnel extending into Israel, which notably lacked an exit on the Israeli side.

Naim Qassem, who was the second-in-command of Hezbollah in Lebanon after Nasrallah—but not his successor—spoke today. Here is a translated transcript of Qassem’s remarks:

A year has passed since October 7th. This marks the beginning of change in the Middle East. It is a 100% legitimate action. Israel seeks to wipe out the Palestinian people and to destroy "the resistance." Israel is not fighting; it is murdering. The U.S. and Europe are full partners in this.

We joined the war to support Gaza and to defend Lebanon. Israel wants to destroy anyone who stands in its way. It wants to impose its will on all the countries of the Middle East.

To anyone doubting Iran's support, Iran has attacked Israel twice (referring to the missile strikes) — this is proof that it supports the axis of resistance and decides how it sees fit to support. The battle is a Palestinian liberation struggle; the axis only assists, but this is a Palestinian battle.

We operate according to our own military decisions, made on the battlefield. There is much destruction on the Israeli side. Our capabilities are in good shape. Our fighters are on the ground, on the battlefield. A survey published in Israel showed that 61% of Israelis do not feel safe. As the war progresses, that percentage will rise. Let’s see them conduct such a survey among the residents of the north.

I know the displaced Lebanese are suffering. This is part of the sacrifice. You are sacrificing like the fighters on the battlefield. This will bring victory with God's help. Despite the loss of commanders, we have functional continuity. Don’t you see that our military activity is increasing? A new leader has been chosen, according to the organization's procedures.

We will defeat Israel. It will not achieve its goals. Nasrallah said that the time for victories has come — don’t you believe him? You are people of patience. Wait patiently for victory. Progress is being made — this is proof of the strength of the resistance. We will not abandon our weapons. We are people of patience. Israel will fall.

Hezbollah and the Amal Movement are together. United. We trust the great leader Nabih Berri (Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament and leader of the Amal Movement). You are Hezbollah’s big brother.

The underlying message, particularly the part concerning Nabih Berri, clearly indicates that Hezbollah is seeking a ceasefire. In recent days, Berri has been openly discussing the possibility of a ceasefire. There are also reports that Iran is pushing Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire. Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the people of Lebanon, urging them to reclaim their country. Netanyahu also announced that in addition to Nasrallah, Israel had eliminated Nasrallah’s successor and his successors successor.

A short time after Naim Qassem finished speaking two barrages of rockets were fired at Haifa and the surrounding Bay Area. The first barrage consisted of 90 rockets, and the second included nearly 30. Several rockets got through our defense systems and struck the communities of Haifa Bay, specifically Kiryat Motzkin and Kiryat Yam, causing damage. Only one person was injured, though not seriously.

Shortly thereafter, the Air Force destroyed the launchers that had been used to fire on Haifa.

Following today’s intense attacks, the Home Front Command revised its guidelines for the Haifa–Krayot region, mandating schools only conduct classes remotely where possible, along with other changes.

Earlier in the day, a barrage of 30 rockets stuck Tiberias. This incident suggests that Hezbollah has become more organized, enabling them to launch such a substantial assault.

ATTACK IRAN’S NUCLEAR FACILITY?

Guest Essay, written by Tel Aviv Diary reader and longtime friend, Barry Viuker

For years Israel hesitated to launch an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities in part because Iran's proxy, Hezbollah had acquired over 100,000 missiles capable of reigning destruction on Israel's civilian heartland. This was essentially a loaded gun pointed at Israel's head. It restrained Israel's freedom of action while Iran kept building up more and more military proxies in its ring of fire or Axis of Resistance surrounding Israel. However, the recent events in Lebanon — the exploding pagers, the exploding walkie talkies, the assassination of Hezbollah's chief, Hassan Nasrallah and the destruction of large amounts of Hezbollah's launchers and missiles without significant retaliation from Lebanon, has, it appears, removed this gun from Israel's head. This therefore gives Israel much more freedom of action than in the past.

Further, the United States, while stating that it did not wish Israel to bomb Iran's nuclear program, and while cautioning it about bombing Iran's petroleum facilities, has given the green light to conduct a retaliatory bombing on Iran. Thus the two main restraining factors with respect to Israeli action against Iran, are gone.   

Israel is therefore confronted with the question of how it should respond to the Iranian ballistic missile attack in September, not whether it should respond. During that attack, Iran launched over 180 missiles at the center of the state, many towards civilian areas.

The attack caused the death of one person, a Gazan who was working in Jericho and was killed by debris from a missile that was intercepted. A number of options have been proposed, among which are the following: Bomb the Iran's nuclear sites. Bomb Iran's oil exporting facilities. Bomb the Iranian Revolutionary Guard stations.

In this regard Israel should try to obtain the maximum strategic benefit from such an attack.  I propose the following …

Israel should wait until after the U.S. Election on November 5. This will give it more freedom of movement. Then Prime Minister should make an address to the Knesset in English to be broadcast to the world stating that Israel is prepared to launch an attack on Iran but will refrain if Iran agrees to:

1. A cessation of hostilities by Iran and its proxies;

2. A withdrawal of Hezbollah north of the Litani;

3. An enforcement of the zone between the LItani and the Israeli border;

4. A release of all the hostages;

5. The exile of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

Clearly, Iran will refuse.

Israel should then bomb one minor petroleum exporting port and destroy the facilities like it did in Hodeida, Yemen. After the port is destroyed Israel should make the offer again. This time, the threat will be to take out another oil exporting port. There are 7 such ports or facilities. At some point, Iran will realize that it is losing its industrial base, and a deal will be made.   

The historical situation that is closest to this but clearly not analogous is the United States bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In August 1945, the U.S. planned to invade the Japanese homeland that September. The anticipated American deaths were in the hundreds of thousands. In early August the U.S. dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima, destroying that city. Japan did not respond. But after a second atomic bomb was dropped, the Japanese sued for peace. 

The Iranian regime, while theocratic, has always acted to preserve its power. If  faced with the destruction of its industries and ports, it presumably will see the light. Such a strategy would achieve much more than simply a one time hit by Israel's air force.  

BUSINESS

Kando

Kando, a wastewater intelligence company dedicated to improving global wastewater data and quality, closed a $10M investment round led by DC Thomson, LIP, Ram-On Investments, Bridges Israel, ICI Fund, Aliaxis, and OurCrowd. This round brings the company’s total funding to $30M. Wastewater quality is a huge global challenge that impacts water availability, public health, and the environment.

Kando optimizes wastewater quality management using proprietary machine learning models trained on unique in-house IoT data. The investment will drive Kando's extensive global expansion, focusing on the US and Europe. “We are looking forward to helping Kando improve water quality in the ocean, rivers, and streams in the UK,” says John S. Thomson, Investment Director at DC Thomson. “Kando's solution, based on GenAI, aligns perfectly with our mission to invest in technologies that support a sustainable future.”

Orasis Pharmaceuticals

Orasis Pharmaceuticals, an ophthalmic pharmaceutical company, raised $78M in funding, including $68M in equity co-led by Arboretum Ventures and Johnson & Johnson Innovation, and $15M in structured capital from Catalio Capital Management. The funds will be used to support the commercial launch of Qlosi™, a novel eye drop for treating presbyopia in adults, designed to improve near visual acuity by pupil modulation without negatively affecting distance vision.

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A PIECE OF HISTORY

Israel’s Unilateral Disengagement from Gaza

Despite facing continued opposition, Sharon remained resolute in his decision to go through with his plan to disengage from Gaza. On February 16, 2005 the Knesset approved a fund of $884 million to compensate the Israeli settlers of Gaza—The compensation varied depending on individual circumstances but averaged $230,000 per family.

The evacuation was scheduled for July 20th. However, because that date coincided with the three-week period of mourning over the destruction of the Temple, the withdrawal was postponed to August 15th. Meanwhile, protests against the disengagement plan grew. On May 16th, tens of thousands of people protested across the country, chanting: “Jews don't expel Jews.” During one confrontation, a large police force detained demonstrators who blocked traffic on the highway leading to Jerusalem from the West.

The demonstrations reached a peak on July 18th in Netivot, where approximately 30,000 right-wing Israeli protesters rallied against the planned unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. Although protesters aimed to reach Gaza in solidarity with the 9,000 settlers scheduled for evacuation, police and soldiers blocked their route. Mordechai Eliyahu, a former Chief Rabbi of Israel, told the cheering crowd: “No power in the world will expel us from our land.”

A week before the pullout Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resigned from the government. Prime Minister Sharon took to the air to address the nation, stating:

The only thing I can say is that to resign a week before the implementation of one of the most complex and difficult decisions ever for the state of Israel, the disengagement plan, and two days before presenting the budget, is an escape I would not award with a special citation.

The day of the withdrawal finally arrived. Starting on August 17, 2005, Police and the Army methodically moved through Gaza's Jewish settlements, systematically evacuating nearly 9,000 settlers. The operation commenced with pre-dawn military movements into settlements such as Neve Dekalim, the largest Jewish community in Gaza. Soldiers donned in specially designed uniforms bearing Israeli symbols, initially attempted to persuade residents to leave voluntarily before resorting to forced evictions.

The Army quickly cleared multiple settlements, including Morag, Bedolah, Kerem Atzmona, Ganei Tal, and Tel Katifa, while encountering varying degrees of resistance. In some locations, like Gadid, they faced burning debris and protesters on rooftops; while in other areas, residents quietly packed their belongings and departed. Special teams of police officers and soldiers adopted a strategy of negotiation before resorting to force—though at times they had to use crowbars to pry open locked doors and remove those resisting eviction.

The most intense confrontations occurred in synagogues, where protesters sought refuge. In Morag, officers had to physically carry out men clad in prayer shawls, while women eventually agreed to be escorted away. The most significant resistance occurred in Neve Dekalim, where hundreds of young protesters, many of whom had entered illegally from the West Bank, barricaded themselves inside the main synagogue.

Despite emotional scenes of residents being carried from their homes and some settlers accusing the operation of being akin to “pogroms,” the operation unfolded without gunfire. Military officials noted that settlers who left voluntarily would receive more substantial government compensation and be permitted to return to pack their belongings. In contrast, those who resisted would receive less support. Within three days, only 7 of the 21 Gaza settlements remained to be cleared, with just a few hundred settlers still occupying their homes.

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